Scoring 1 run for your starter

One thing I love about Orix Buffaloes manager Norifumi Nishimura is his willingness to speak his mind. Of course, as one of Japan’s principle advocates of the sacrifice bunt, that means ascribing all kinds of benefits to the tactic.

Nishimura attributed Orix’s 9-2 loss to the SoftBank Hawks on Sunday to:

  • His starting pitcher repeatedly throwing pitches that were easy to hit
  • His No. 2 hitter failing to sacrifice after his leadoff man reached in the 1st inning.

Mind you, his starting pitcher, rookie Daichi Takeyasu had been fairly sharp in his four previous starts. But still, Nishimura is asserting that getting the runner to scoring position with one out could have prevented the ass-whipping that was to follow.

Is it reasonable to assume that a visiting pitcher would do better if he entered the bottom of the first with the one-run lead Nishimura lives to play for?

Here’s a quick study from the available data including recent starting pitchers, and how they performed on the road in those games when they went to the mound in the first inning of games that were either scoreless or 1-0. Included only those in which I have a record of them with a minimum of 50 innings as a starter in games that were 1-0 after the top of the first.

NameIP 1-0 startsERA 1-0 startsERA 0-0 startsWin Pct 0-0 startsWin Pct 1-0 startsERA Diff .
Randy Messenger664.093.200.5000.3750.89
Kenshin Kawakami54 1/34.143.700.5600.7500.44
Takayuki Kishi107 1/32.932.540.5830.6150.39
Kazuhisa Ishii93 2/34.043.660.3670.4440.38
Hideaki Wakui142 1/34.053.770.4950.4740.28
Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi89 1/34.844.570.4040.3330.27
Atsushi Nomi1504.143.870.4780.4500.27
Tetsuya Utsumi151 1/33.513.540.4420.450-0.03
Kan Otake124 2/33.543.610.3860.625-0.07
Koji Uehara122 2/33.083.190.5160.600-0.11
Masanori Ishikawa152 2/33.483.680.3880.619-0.20
Shunsuke Watanabe99 2/33.794.040.4260.500-0.25
Kenichi Nakata104 2/33.614.030.3730.692-0.42
Yoshihisa Naruse118 1/33.423.910.3750.571-0.49
Toshiya Sugiuchi196 2/32.613.200.4940.684-0.59
Kenta Maeda1452.112.710.4460.688-0.60
Hisashi Iwakuma742.433.070.5920.625-0.64
Fumiya Nishiguchi1053.604.300.4260.769-0.70
Daisuke Miura1842.843.540.3410.647-0.70
Masahiro Yamamoto1243.824.670.4070.667-0.85
Hiroki Kuroda1202.333.330.4760.786-1.00
Yasutomo Kubo952.564.130.4510.857-1.57
Tsuyoshi Wada188 1/31.963.680.5140.941-1.72
Naoyuki Shimizu86 2/33.225.110.4030.818-1.89
Pitchers performances in starts as visitors in games started with 1-0 lead or 0-0 lead.

It seems from this data that it might be a good idea to get your pitcher a 1-0 lead in the first inning if you can. Having said that, I think I can see why Randy Messenger‘s teammates have infamously scored so few runs for him: He has done better when they don’t.

So Nishimura’s assertion that one run could have changed everything is probably not as ridiculous as it first sounds. And if your starting pitcher was Tsuyoshi Wada — at least back in the day before he had Tommy John surgery, why the heck wouldn’t you sacrifice in the top of the first if you had a chance?

NPB games, news of July 27, 2019

Daisuke Matsuzaka‘s high-wire act crashed on Saturday, when the 38-year-old, former power pitcher took the mound for the second time this season since coming back from shoulder inflammation. The Chunichi Dragons right-hander retired one of the 10 batters he faced, allowing eight hits and hitting a batter in the DeNA BayStars’ eight-run first inning.

Since he signed with the Dragons in 2018, Matsuzaka has been living on the edge, fooling batters with his cutter and changeup and being unusually effective with runners in scoring position. In 2018, opposing batters had — by my estimate — a .726 OPS against Matsuzaka, but just .572 with runners in scoring position.

The eight runs are the most scored in the first inning in Japan this year and the most scored in a Central League first inning since Sept. 23, 2017, when Saturday’s BayStars starter, Kenta Ishida, took the mound at Nagoya Dome with an eight-run first inning.

The eight runs are the most Matsuzaka has allowed since Sept. 7, 2010 against the Rays in Boston, and the most in Japan since he coughed up eight over 6-1/3 innings to the Dragons when pitching for the Seibu Lions in Game 2 of the 2004 Japan Series, also at Nagoya Dome.

“Pretty much all his pitches were fat,” Dragons manager Tsuyoshi Yoda said.

After several of his players, who like Matsuzaka were products of Yokohama High School, explained how much they get up for batting against him, DeNA manager Alex Ramirez called Matsuzaka a national hero and that everyone was motivated by playing against him.

Despite the amazing run support, Ishida, who won the game, is now 3-3 at Nagoya Dome, where he has a 2.11 career ERA. Six of his previous seven were quality starts, and this one wasn’t since Ramirez apparently wanted to give some of his seldom-used relievers some work after the fifth inning. Ishida’s other win was a 2-1 affair after he allowed a run over eight innings in 2015.

Central League

Tigers 3, Giants 2

At Tokyo Dome, Hanshin tried hard to throw this game away, but Inspector Clouseaued its way to victory over the Yomiuri Giants. With the winning run at second and one out, the Tigers do what NPB teams all do, they bring the outfield in so the runner can’t score on a ball that gets through the infield.

Right fielder Shun Takayama had to race back and make an awkward falling catch on a ball to medium deep right field, a ball he had no business catching in that defensive alignment.

Having avoided defeat, Tigers catcher Ryutaro Umeno put his base running acumen on display, legging out a double that allowed him to score the go-ahead run.

With the lead in hand, and closer Rafael Dolis on the farm so that new import Yangervis Solarte can play, 39-year-old former Chicago Cub Kyuji Fujikawa nailed down saves on consecutive days for the first time since Oct. 10 and 11, 2011.

A day after Solarte hit a two-run, tie-breaking home run, he doubled and scored Hanshin’s first run to make it a 2-1 game. Jefry Marte homered to tie it 2-2 in the seventh, and Pierce Johnson struck out two in a 1-2-3 eighth inning for Hanshin. New Giant Rubby De La Rosa helped send the game to extra innings with a 1-2-3 ninth.

Game highlights are HERE.

Carp 3, Swallows 2

At Jingu Stadium, solo homers from Ryoma Nishikawa leading off the game, Seiya Suzuki, his 22nd, and Xavier Batista, a sixth-inning tie-breaker that was his 24th, lifted Hiroshima past Yakult to its third eight-game winning streak of the season.

Rookie Carp lefty Hiroki Tokoda (6-5) allowed two runs over five innings to earn his first win since May 24.

Pacific League

Buffaloes 5, Hawks 3

At Yafuoku Dome, Orix right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto (5-4) dominated SoftBank for 8-2/3 innings. One out away from a shutout in the ninth, he surrendered two hits and a three-run Alfredo Despaigne home run.

Brandon Dickson came on to get the final out and struck out Nobuhiro Matsuda to end it and earn his ninth save.

Steven Moya got the ball rolling for the Buffaloes with a two-run, first-inning home run.

Game highlights are HERE.

Marines 9, Eagles 7

At Zozo Marine Stadium, Leonys Martin had his first hits in Japan and made them count, breaking a 5-5, sixth-inning tie with a two-out RBI single and snapping a 7-7 deadlock in the eighth with a two-run home run as Lotte came-from-behind twice to beat Rakuten.

Here’s Martin’s home run.

Martin, who started in right field, carelessly missed a liner off the bat of Eigoro Mogi for a three-base error that opened the Eagles’ three-run fifth, when they overturned a 2-1 deficit. Martin, did however, save a run in the inning, when he fielded Ren Wada’s RBI single on a hop and threw a strike to catcher Tatsuhiro Tamura on the fly to end the inning on an out at the plate.

With two outs in the bottom of the eighth, Martin hammered a high fastball away for an opposite-field homer.

Game highlights are HERE.

Fighters 10, Lions 6

At MetLife Dome, Nippon Ham overturned a 4-0 deficit in a six-run fifth inning, when the Fighters knocked out Seibu starter Shinsaburo Tawata (1-5). The Fighters’ fourth-straight win moved them to within a half game of the PL-leading Hawks.

Seibu hit six solo homers, three by catcher Tomoya Mori, who had invited 33 families with intellectually or physically handicapped children to the game. Takeya Nakamura’s was his fifth home run in four games.