In this week’s podcast, John E. Gibson suggested it will be a hard slog for Yakult Swallows, whom my simplistic projection predicts will win the Central League pennant, to do that.
His thought was that since the Swallows play 11 of their final 21 games against the league’s second- and third-toughest teams, the Tigers and Giants, it will be harder than it looks.
Continue reading Projection perspectiveProjected 2021 season finishes for Japan’s Central and Pacific Leagues after the games of Sept. 19, 2021.
| p W | p L | T | p Win Pct | p GB | |
| Swallows | 73 | 56 | 14 | .5659 | |
| Tigers | 77 | 61 | 5 | .5580 | 0.5 |
| Giants | 69 | 58 | 16 | .5433 | 3.0 |
| Dragons | 59 | 70 | 14 | .4574 | 14.0 |
| BayStars | 58 | 71 | 14 | .4496 | 15.0 |
| Carp | 57 | 76 | 10 | .4286 | 18.0 |
| p W | p L | T | p Win Pct | p GB | |
| Marines | 72 | 54 | 17 | .5714 | 0.0 |
| Buffaloes | 69 | 59 | 15 | .5391 | 4.0 |
| Eagles | 67 | 63 | 13 | .5154 | 7.0 |
| Hawks | 62 | 62 | 19 | .5000 | 9.0 |
| Lions | 55 | 70 | 18 | .4400 | 16.5 |
| Fighters | 54 | 72 | 17 | .4286 | 18.0 |
The projections are based on each team’s existing records, runs scored, runs allowed, and games remaining. Each league’s remaining wins and losses are distributed based on the teams’ relative Pythagorean winning percentages. Future ties are not considered, nor are the number of home and road games remaining or the apparent quality of remaining opponents.
