2023 NPB win share awards

With the deadline to file my 2023 Pacific and Central league award and Golden Glove ballots fast approaching, I’ve spent much of the past two weeks in my annual number-crunching excursion into NPB’s team and individual performances.

As some of you know, I calculate Bill James’ Win Shares for NPB players, which in general agree with Wins Above Replacement except that pitching in WAR contributes roughly 60 percent of the value, with offense and defense sharing the rest. In Win Shares, offense is set at 42 percent, with pitchers and fielders splitting the remainder, with the size of the split largely determined by the quality of each team’s defensive and pitching stats.

To my thinking, the differences in these relative splits can be attributed to two things, that WAR assigns value based on the principle of scarcity an individual’s performance represents, while Win Shares assigns value on the principle that wins result from the contributions of each team’s pitchers, fielders and hitters, and examines individual results to assign the share each player contributes to team success with his batting, pitching and fielding.

The win share awards are results of calculations using complex algorithms, but are calculations producing estimates, not knowledge, and come with their own biases. These influence my own award voting, but do not represent my eventual decisions.

Each leader comes with his relative Win Shares total, and the score of the player with the next highest total. Although it lacks game-by-game observational accounts that result in the Ultimate Zone Rating used by WAR, and more detailed individual play metrics, Win Shares defense scores mesh well with WAR over a period of seasons, but individual years can provide some interesting results.

For the Golden Glove awards, I ranked players by their number of win shares at their position per 1,000 innings played. For both Best Nines and Win Shares, I limited the players ranked to those who spent at least half the season at that position.

Continue reading 2023 NPB win share awards

NPB news: Oct. 20, 2023

Japanese pro baseball had one elimination game as its two leagues’ Foreplay Series Final Stages reached Game 3 in and around Osaka with the Hanshin Tigers holding a 3-0 lead over the Hiroshima Carp, and the Orix Buffaloes leading the Lotte Marines 2-1.

Friday’s games

Buffaloes 2, Marines 0: At Osaka UFO Dome, Yutaro Sugimoto saved at least a run in the outfield and set up the game’s first run with a hustling eighth-inning leadoff double as the Orix Buffaloes moved to within one win or one tie of their third-straight Japan Series.

Lotte manager Masato Yoshii opted for a bullpen game to try and even the series at 2-2. Orix loaded the bases with two outs in the first against Hirokazu Sawamura and in the second against Shunsuke Nakamori to no avail, while rookie Kohei Azuma retired seven straight batters after two had reached in the first with one out.

Nakamori was able to get through three innings without any more difficulty, and no-out singles by Koki Yamaguchi and Toshiya Sato put the heat on Azuma in the fifth. A bunt moved the runnners over, but two short flies ended the inning, the second, caught on a diving effort by the lumbering Sugimoto in left as the lucky Lotte Marines mojo failed to materialize for the first time in the series.

The Marines had the mojo on defense, however. Yuki Kuniyoshi, Lotte’s third pitcher, saved a run in the fifth by snaring a two-out liner headed for center with runners on the corners. Kuniyoshi had a stress-free sixth, and Taisuke Yamaoka, who blew a one-run save opportunity on Thursday, came out to pitch the top of the seventh for Orix and worked around a one-out hit batsman.

After a scoreless eighth inning from Buffaloes Yuki Udagawa, Sugimoto hustled to a leadoff double against new reliever Takahiro Nishimura, and pinch-runner Yuya Oda scored on a two-out single by Kenya Wakatsuki, who beat the throw home on a pinch-hit double from Yuma Tongu.

Yoshihisa Hirano, who saved Wednesday’s wild Game 1, stranded a runner in the ninth to extend his record as the oldest pitcher to record a postseason save in Japan.

Continue reading NPB news: Oct. 20, 2023

writing & research on Japanese baseball

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