Outfield defense and base runners

These are measures of what happens when the ball goes to the different outfield positions in NPB. How does each team fare in terms of limiting opposing scoring opportunities by throwing out or holding runners?

It’s the part of outfield defense that is not at all about range, but about what happens after outfielders get to the ball. On occasion, this is going to involve plays in the infield that the outfielder, and it will include fumbles and misplays in the outfield.

Who’s the best?

To kill the suspense, the measures indicate a few positions as being consistently strong or weak in NPB combined from 2017 to 2018. Again, these scores have nothing to do with range, and the frequency of extra-base hits, so a fast player who gets good jumps and has good hands, may score really poorly, while a player who gets to few balls but is reliable once he has the ball could rate very highly.

The strongest — relative to their league and position

  1. Hiroshima Carp RF — Seiya Suzuki
  2. Nippon Ham Fighters RF — mostly Taishi Ota and Go Matsumoto
  3. SoftBank Hawks CF — Yuki Yanagita
  4. Yomiuri Giants LF — mostly Alex Guerrero and Yoshiyuki Kamei
  5. Chunichi Dragons LF — mostly Zoilo Almonte and Alex Guerrero
  6. SoftBank Hawks RF — Seiji Uebayashi

The weakest — relative to their league and position

  1. Yakult Swallows LF — Wladimir Balentien
  2. Hanshin Tigers RF — Yoshio Itoi and Kosuke Fukudome
  3. Orix Buffaloes RF — cast of 1,000s but mostly Stefen Romero and Masataka Yoshida.
  4. Yakult Swallows RF — Yuhei Takai
  5. Rakuten Eagles RF — Carlos Peguero

How it’s measured

Each play and situation — for example a single to right with runners on the corners with one out — has been tagged with the run expectancy after the play is resolved through runners taking extra bases or being thrown out or balls being dropped or throws going wide.

It’s mostly about the ability of outfielders to get off accurate throws quickly, but it is a team approach and so it’s not quite appropriate to call it an “arm rating.”

Unfortunately, no measure is made of the speed of the runners on base or how deep balls are hit or whether they are fly ball singles or ground ball singles into the outfield. Each team is graded for every type of play and situation and compared to the league average.

For example, with no outs and no one on, a single to right in which the runner stops at first changes the batting team’s run expectancy in the inning to .833. In 2018, every play of this type ended that way. But in 2017, three runners were thrown out trying to stretch a single to a double, while two advanced to second on misplays. Those latter two plays increased the opposing run expectancy for the inning to 1.101.

In 2017, the Rakuten Eagles right fielders fielded 52 singles with no outs and the bases empty. One play was messed up, and their right fielders were charged (just for those 52 plays) with increasing opposing run scoring chances more than the league average by 0.42 runs over the course of the season. Each team’s total for a position is the number of runs increased above average for the course of the season. A negative number is good.

The Hiroshima Carp had the other no-out, bases-empty miscue on a single to right, but were only charged with giving away 0.32 runs because the average run expectancy on those plays was slightly higher than in the PL. 0.832 to 0.830.

The tables

In the tables, separated by each league and position, with the player who had each team’s most innings at the position as well as his assist total for the season. They are sorted by season totals below the league average indicating how many runs the team saved in these situations that seasons.

CL teams left field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2018CLDragonsZoilo Almonte974.335-4.39-5.88
2017CLBayStarsYoshitomo Tsutsugo1132.336-4.06-1.98
2017CLGiantsYoshiyuki Kamei460.672-3.59-6.63
2018CLGiantsAlex Guerrero6202-3.04-6.63
2017CLDragonsAlex Guerrero7007-1.49-5.88
2018CLCarpTakayoshi Noma636.331-1.33+1.33
2017CLTigersKosuke Fukudome439.670+0.85+2.74
2018CLTigersKosuke Fukudome883.336+1.89+2.74
2018CLBayStarsYoshitomo Tsutsugo11055+2.08-1.98
2017CLCarpRyuhei Matsuyama566.673+2.66+1.33
2018CLSwallowsWladimir Balentien10223+4.78+10.4
2017CLSwallowsWladimir Balentien993.336+5.62+10.4
PL teams left field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2018PLLionsYuji Kaneko587.333-4.01-1.85
2017PLEaglesTakero Okajima5713-3.63-1.42
2017PLFightersTaishi Ota705.673-3.15-2.08
2018PLMarinesKatsuya Kakunaka4886-0.27+1.56
2018PLHawksAkira Nakamura774.672-0.13+1.22
2018PLFightersKensuke Kondo759.332+1.07-2.08
2018PLBuffaloesMasataka Yoshida7771+1.11+2.54
2017PLHawksAkira Nakamura1125.676+1.35+1.22
2017PLBuffaloesTakahiro Okada9393+1.43+2.54
2017PLMarinesKatsuya Kakunaka673.335+1.83+1.56
2017PLLionsYuji Kaneko430.672+2.16-1.85
2018PLEaglesHiroaki Shimauchi696.673+2.21-1.42
CL teams center field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2017CLGiantsYang Dai-kang755.330-2.71-3.51
2017CLBayStarsMasayuki Kuwahara12854-2.24+0.05
2018CLDragonsYohei Oshima1242.677-1.63-0.13
2018CLGiantsYang Dai-kang5063-0.8-3.51
2018CLSwallowsNorichika Aoki10264-0.58-0.95
2017CLSwallowsTomotaka Sakaguchi559.673-0.37-0.95
2018CLCarpYoshihiro Maru1070.671+0.2+2.73
2018CLTigersShunsuke Fujikawa342.331+0.52+1.81
2017CLTigersYoshio Itoi4241+1.29+1.81
2017CLDragonsYohei Oshima1070.672+1.5-0.13
2018CLBayStarsMasayuki Kuwahara851.674+2.29+0.05
2017CLCarpYoshihiro Maru1278.671+2.53+2.73
PL teams center field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2018PLHawksYuki Yanagita993.678-3.87-6.85
2017PLHawksYuki Yanagita1091.3376-2.98-6.85
2017PLBuffaloesShunta Goto543.672-0.16-0.13
2017PLMarinesTakashi Ogino5265-0.05+0.25
2018PLBuffaloesYuma Mune574.333+0.03-0.13
2017PLFightersHaruki Nishikawa996.332+0.04+2.13
2018PLMarinesTakashi Ogino6747+0.3+0.25
2018PLEaglesKazuki Tanaka9244+0.32+1.96
2018PLLionsShogo Akiyama1277.334+1.12+2.63
2017PLLionsShogo Akiyama1269.677+1.51+2.63
2017PLEaglesHiroaki Shimauchi11354+1.64+1.96
2018PLFightersHaruki Nishikawa12274+2.09+2.13
PL teams center field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2018PLHawksYuki Yanagita993.678-3.87-6.85
2017PLHawksYuki Yanagita1091.3376-2.98-6.85
2017PLBuffaloesShunta Goto543.672-0.16-0.13
2017PLMarinesTakashi Ogino5265-0.05+0.25
2018PLBuffaloesYuma Mune574.333+0.03-0.13
2017PLFightersHaruki Nishikawa996.332+0.04+2.13
2018PLMarinesTakashi Ogino6747+0.3+0.25
2018PLEaglesKazuki Tanaka9244+0.32+1.96
2018PLLionsShogo Akiyama1277.334+1.12+2.63
2017PLLionsShogo Akiyama1269.677+1.51+2.63
2017PLEaglesHiroaki Shimauchi11354+1.64+1.96
2018PLFightersHaruki Nishikawa12274+2.09+2.13
CL teams right field defense and base runners, 2017 - 2018
YearLeagueTeamName RInningsAssistsTotal rel to leagueTeam Sum
2017CLCarpSeiya Suzuki1032.3310-7.29-10.65
2018CLCarpSeiya Suzuki1011.338-3.36-10.65
2018CLGiantsHisayoshi Chono591.670-1.34-2.32
2018CLDragonsRyosuke Hirata1143.6679-1.12-1.5
2017CLBayStarsTakayuki Kajitani12024-1.11-1.81
2017CLGiantsHisayoshi Chono987.672-0.98-2.32
2018CLBayStarsNeftali Soto5442-0.7-1.81
2017CLDragonsRyosuke Hirata5963-0.38-1.5
2018CLSwallowsYuhei Takai972.334+2.88+6.01
2017CLSwallowsYuhei Takai5713+3.13+6.01
2018CLTigersYoshio Itoi9684+3.64+10.28
2017CLTigersKosuke Fukudome5591+6.64+10.28

writing & research on Japanese baseball

css.php