Jim Allen

Thirty-eight percent of NPB’s home runs have disappeared, and anyone who tells you the ball isn’t the major factor, or that the reason is “the pitchers are better” is probably basing it on the games they watch without a broad sense of what the data is.

The wonderful thing about data is that if one gets enough of it, patterns can sometimes emerge that are not visible to even the most rigorous observer.

As Matt Murton said in 2013, when Japan’s previously soft mushy balls began flying better, “if it’s something that’s happening more or less across the board in both leagues, it’s not individual players doing something different.”

My podcast partner John E. Gibson (@JBWPodcast) has said he hasn’t seen balls that were really squared up and elevated dying, while he has seen balls that didn’t look like they had been struck that well go out. I saw a few of those this past week.

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On Sunday in Japan, we had a no-hitter near miss and two rookie pitchers starting and winning their big league debuts, while Fighters manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo uttered some words of wisdom after errors cost his team a game. And just in case you missed it, yesterday’s blog post included a rundown on the no-hitters that Japan doesn’t officially count.

Off the field, two position players were called up to make their major league debuts. Hiroshima activated Western League batting leader Keisuke Sato, Seibu brought up Koichi Okumura, who I write about after the game action.

The interleague scorecard now stands with the PL leading 37-32 with two ties, and all but one of the remaining 37 games to be played in the Pacific League’s home parks. The six PL teams are 10-8 this season at home, 17-15-2 on the road.

Starting Tuesday, the Dragons will be in Hokkaido, the Giants in Sendai, the Carp at Seibu, the BayStars in Chiba, the Tigers at Orix and the Swallows in Fukuoka. From Friday, the Giants will be in Hokkaido, the Carp in Sendai, the BayStars at Seibu, the Swallows in Osaka and the Tigers in Fukuoka. Unless there are more rainouts, the final game will be the Fighters at Koshien on either Monday or Tuesday with league play resuming Friday.

Sunday’s games:

Swallows 1, Fighters 0: At Jingu “Tokyo’s sacrifice to corporate greed and governmental malfeasance” Stadium, Yakult’s Miguel Yajure scattered a walk, a hit batsman and six singles over seven innings as Nippon Ham wasted an excellent start from lefty Takayuki Kato when the Swallows scraped out an eighth-inning run.

Closer Seigi Tanaka popped up Jose Osuna, who reached second when shortstop on an inning-opening two-base error when shortstop Tatsuki Mizuno failed to make the catch in the wind. A sacrifice bunt put the runner on third for former Fighter Haruki Nishikawa‘s sacrifice fly. Naofumi Kizawa and Kazuto Taguchi each supplied a scoreless inning with Taguchi getting his third straight.

Fighters manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo, whose comments all season have been matter of fact to a degree unmatched in his pro career, said of the 23-year-old Mizuno’s miss-play, “In my pro baseball career, I’ve never seen a player whose career was ended by an error. Now it’s just a matter of how he moves past it. And he did have a hit in the ninth inning.”

Asked about dynamic outfielder Chusei Mannami‘s two base-running mistakes, Shinjo said, “Mistakes come with the territory, but if we don’t make fewer of those, we won’t become a strong team.”

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writing & research on Japanese baseball