What does it mean when the announcers say your favorite team has lost x number of games after leading? Losing is never a positive outcome, and every team blows leads at some point. But what’s the norm?
So when John E. Gibson tweeted the other day about the SoftBank Hawks’ losses after leading, I was itching to figure out if it actually meant anything. Half seems likes a lot. Is it? I didn’t know.
To find out, I wrote a program to document each team’s lead or deficit in runs after every half inning since 2020. I have a few missing games from 2020, but otherwise I can say that about 40 percent of the losses in Japan come when the losing team held a lead at some point.
The Hawks, who blew a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first on Sunday in Nagoya, have now led in 50 percent of their losses, the second worst figure in Japan after the Hiroshima Carp’s .536. The best figure belongs to the Rakuten Eagles, who led in 22.7 percent of their losses.
When the Eagles have blown leads, on average, they’ve been big ones, averaging a maximum lead of two runs over those five losses.
Leading Losers
| Team | Loss Pct | L after leading | Avg lead blown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carp | 53.6% | 15 | 1.47 |
| Hawks | 50.0% | 11 | 1.55 |
| Giants | 44.4% | 12 | 2.00 |
| Fighters | 42.9% | 15 | 1.80 |
| Marines | 40.6% | 13 | 1.38 |
| Tigers | 39.4% | 13 | 1.92 |
| BayStars | 34.5% | 10 | 1.60 |
| Buffaloes | 31.0% | 9 | 1.78 |
| Swallows | 30.0% | 6 | 1.33 |
| Dragons | 27.6% | 8 | 2.13 |
| Lions | 26.7% | 8 | 1.63 |
| Eagles | 22.7% | 5 | 2.00 |
Win Percentages when leading, trailing
Another way to look at this is how well teams do when leading or trailing. NPB teams have a .628 winning percentage when leading at some point during the game, the Hawks are above average in this respect with a .744 win percentage in games in which they hold a lead. It’s not so odd that a lot of their losses come after they lead, since they’ve led in all but 12 of their games.
The Seibu Lions are the team whose games are the most predictable in the sense that they’ve never led in an NPB-high 23 games, and never trailed in 20 games, third most in NPB behind Yakult’s 21 and SoftBank’s 22.
The Hawks lead NPB by never trailing in 12 games through Sunday, they are followed by the Hiroshima Carp (13) and Yakult Swallows (14–15 as of Tuesday’s loss to the Buffaloes).
| Team | Win pct with lead | Win pct after trailing |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | .861 | .469 |
| Swallows | .854 | .500 |
| Dragons | .771 | .300 |
| Lions | .765 | .241 |
| Buffaloes | .763 | .394 |
| Hawks | .744 | .500 |
| Giants | .739 | .545 |
| BayStars | .697 | .296 |
| Tigers | .658 | .286 |
| Carp | .651 | .458 |
| Marines | .649 | .240 |
| Fighters | .595 | .200 |
Win Pct. leading by 1-3 runs, tied after 7
At the other end from the Lions are the Yomiuri Giants, who through Sunday never led in 15 games and never trailed in just 16. They have NPB’s highest winning percentage after trailing, but have been just above average at winning after getting the lead.
That has changed for them after the seventh inning this season. Through Sunday, they were 23-1-0 when tied or leading by less than three runs after seven innings. The Chunichi Dragons have been mediocre in many ways, but not when protecting late leads.
The NPB average winning percentage when tied or leading by three runs or fewer after seven this season is .817, and the Hawks have been below average.
| Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Win Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 23 | 1 | 0 | .958 |
| Dragons | 15 | 1 | 0 | .938 |
| Eagles | 16 | 2 | 1 | .889 |
| Lions | 13 | 2 | 1 | .867 |
| Swallows | 19 | 3 | 1 | .864 |
| Buffaloes | 21 | 4 | 0 | .840 |
| Carp | 14 | 3 | 2 | .824 |
| Hawks | 14 | 4 | 1 | .778 |
| Marines | 15 | 5 | 1 | .750 |
| Fighters | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
| BayStars | 14 | 6 | 0 | .700 |
| Tigers | 12 | 7 | 1 | .632 |
Win Pct. trailing by 1-3 runs after 7
Through Sunday, the NPB average winning percentage when trailing by 1-3 runs after the seventh inning is .346. It’s hard to imagine, but Yakult has been over .500 in those games with the Eagles a solid second.
| Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Win Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swallows | 14 | 13 | 1 | .519 |
| Eagles | 12 | 14 | 1 | .462 |
| Buffaloes | 12 | 16 | 0 | .429 |
| Hawks | 9 | 12 | 1 | .429 |
| Dragons | 13 | 18 | 0 | .419 |
| Carp | 11 | 18 | 2 | .379 |
| BayStars | 7 | 13 | 0 | .350 |
| Giants | 7 | 16 | 0 | .304 |
| Fighters | 7 | 22 | 0 | .241 |
| Tigers | 7 | 25 | 1 | .219 |
| Lions | 6 | 22 | 1 | .214 |
| Marines | 5 | 19 | 1 | .208 |
