Category Archives: Research

A repository for research articles

Better red AND dead

A week or so ago, author Robb Fitts posed a two-part question to our podcast about whether there was data to support my assertion that the ball being used in NPB in recent weeks was actually livelier than the ball in play from the start of the season, and if so, does that account for the Carp’s late-season lack of buoyancy.

The ball has been changed

In short, the answer to the first question is “most likely.” The ball in play now is deader than the ball in play at this time of year the past three seasons, but is nothing like the disaster of a ball that NPB began the season with.

Prior to July 1 this season, 3.7 percent of balls that went out of the infield were home runs. From 2021 to 2023, the percentage was 5.9 percent, 36.6 percent less often. I didn’t include 2020 because the season didn’t start until June 19 because of the pandemic.

From Aug. 15 to Sept. 13, the percentage of balls into the outfield that reached the seats this year was 5 percent. In the previous three years it was 6 percent, a decrease of just 16.8 percent.

Continue reading Better red AND dead

NPB news: Sept. 4, 2024

It’s been a few days without any game recaps as I’ve been trying to update a database to analyze the trove of pitch data I’ve been compiling for NPB games since 2020. This got supercharged Friday when Roki Sasaki turned his slider loose, and got another boost after a conversation Tuesday with a data scientist who is studying called balls and strikes in NPB. Attacking the data I did from a different direction but reaching a similar conclusion.

Spoiler alert: If you’re a Hanshin Tigers fan in need of something to complain about, I’ll provide it.

More on those later, though, after some notes about Wednesday’s games, when Shumpeita Yamashita Franmil Reyes remained on a roll, and Andre Jackson posted his third straight quality start for DeNA.

In other news, Masahiro Tanaka pitched on the farm today and threw 102 pitches over 5-2/3 innings in a game against DeNA, and said he was progressing toward being ready to resume pitching in Japan’s majors for the first time since having shoulder surgery last year.

Wednesday’s games

Swallows 3, Giants 0: At Osaka UFO Dome, Kojiro Yoshimura (6-8) scattered nine hits over the distance for his first career complete game. He struck out five but did not issue a walk.

Yomiuri’s Foster Griffin (6-4) got into his second straight pitchers’ duel against Yakult, and surrendered the first runs via the imported heart of the Swallows’ order, when Domingo Santana singled in the fourth and Jose Osuna followed with his 16th home run. Griffin struck out seven over seven innings, and Santana set up Yakult’s third run with his third hit of the game, an eighth-inning leadoff single.

Yoshimura, who allowed 14 runs over 21 innings in his last three starts, won for the first time since he threw 7-1/3 shutout innings against the Giants on June 21.

Continue reading NPB news: Sept. 4, 2024