NPB’s best of 2016

It’s award time again and so here are some thoughts about the best of the best in Nippon Professional Baseball.

The MVPs

@JBWPodcast has had a crush on second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi of the Hiroshima Carp because of his clutch fielding. Kikuchi had a career year at the plate in 2016. According to Bill James Win Shares, he was the Carp’s most valuable hitter and NPB’s most valuable fielder. His fielding is so eye-catching that it’s easy to vote for him. But is he the most valuable player in the CL? Three players have more win shares:

  1. Tetsuya Yamada 36
  2. Hayato Sakamoto 34
  3. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 32
  4. Ryosuke Kikuchi 28

No one makes as many big defensive plays as Kikuchi, and to do it on grass when everyone else plays on plastic makes it that much more impressive. These big plays can be game changers in the same way that a late-inning relief effort or a clutch hit can be. Sometimes they will tip a game from a loss to a win, but the clutch performances don’t do the bulk of the heavy lifting.

If Kikuchi makes a huge play that saves a run, it can turn a close game, but the one play doesn’t win the entire game. Lots of other things have to happen, and the people who do those things deserve credit, too. What I’m trying to say is if he turns 10 games around with his glove, it doesn’t mean he won 10 games with his glove.

Finishing high in the standings is important, and I’m willing to discount Yamada’s share of the Yakult Swallows’ successes because of that. But that’s a huge gap for Kikuchi to overcome to match the big three.

My standard test for MVP is this: If you had to fill out a team to win a pennant, and all players were considered to be the same age, who would you want more based on what they did THIS past season? Who would be your first choice? The numbers above are opinions of a system that attributes team wins to its individual players. I think it’s clear that Kikuchi was not as valuable as Yamada, but where these four rank is really difficult.

I’m inclined to go for Hayato Sakamoto as MVP rather than Yamada, but I wouldn’t really fault anyone for ranking any of the four in any order.

The Pacific League is the flip side to this. The player who lead the PL in win shares, played for the league champion Nippon Ham Fighters. The PL’s elite three according to win shares were more or less in a dead heat and all playing for the top three clubs.

  1. Shohei Otani 32
  2. Yuki Yanagita 32
  3. Katsuya Kakunaka 32

With Otani winning the league, he’s a no-brainer.

Shohei Otani two-times Hawks

Wednesday night, Shohei Otani (9-4) started on the mound and batted in the same game for the first time in over two months. Otani went eight innings, allowing a run on four hits, three walks and made a costly throwing error. Otani went 1-for-4 with a double and struck out three times, twice on good splitters from the SoftBank Hawks’ Kodai Senga.

Here‘s an evaluation of Shohei Otani’s potential in the big leagues by scout Dave DeFreitas.

The Fighters will post Otani when he wants to go — and a good bet would be a year from now after the World Baseball Classic — when he will likely both bat and pitch for NPB’s team. The Fighters have tried to persuade their stars to stay, but have not stood in their way and will likely post Otani should he request it. A Fighters source has said Otani is loving both hitting and pitching, and spurned big league offers out of high school because the Fighters offered him the chance to do both. The same source said Otani would be interested in moving to the majors if teams over there are interested in giving him the opportunity to do both.

writing & research on Japanese baseball