Thanks to all those who replied on twitter.com to the Central League and Pacific League award ballots I filed Sunday. They generated a lot of interest, primarily about the complete absence of CL home run and RBI leader Kazuma Okamoto of the Giants and Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto failing to get even a third-place vote for PL MVP.
One twitter.com reader wrote in Japanese: “It’s his personal opinion, of course, but I thought, “Kensuke Kondo MVP??? ” Other than that his ballot was normal.”
In another post, I explained the process that led me to omit Okamoto, who I’d have given a fifth-place MVP vote if we had those to give. Now, it’s time to turn my attention to the pitcher who has led the PL in wins, strikeouts and ERA for the past three seasons, and is now likely to be the PL’s MVP for the third straight year.
My estimates start by getting a run and home run adjustment for each team’s playing environment in 2023, that allows me to estimate how many runs a team scores and saves beyond an expected bare minimum. The relationship between marginal runs scored and saved determines how many of each team’s wins are credited to offense on one side, and pitching and defense on the other side.
Continue reading Where’s Yoshinobu?