Roki Sasaki is coming, MLB ready or not.

I’ve talked about the “how,” in “Roki Sasaki’s unprecedented situation,” and you can read about the “what” – as in what he brings – in numerous scouting reports on the net. I’m bigger on his slider than most, and not as big on his fastball and split – although that split has been monstrous in the past and I expect it to rebound going forward.

Today, I’m going to tell you the “why” behind Roki Sasaki.

A posting was always in the cards

We could all guess back in 2019 that Roki Sasaki’s posting was inevitable, although the early timing came as a surprise.

Four teams went after Sasaki in the 2019, with the Pacific League’s Lotte Marines getting his rights by lottery. Japan’s hardest throwing high school pitcher had passed on signing with an MLB team because to do so prior to the summer of 2020 would have meant being classified as a pro prior to his final summer of high school ball and missing out on his shot at pitching in the summer nationals at Koshien Stadium.

Prior to the 2019 draft, it is likely Sasaki told would-be suitors he would only sign with teams willing to post him to MLB, because two teams that called him a generational talent after meeting with him, the Yomiuri Giants and SoftBank Hawks, did not nominate him as their top pick. Both of those clubs have long disparaged the posting system, and the Hawks have never used it, ever.

Why so early?

This is the big question.

By going at the age of 23, Sasaki is forgoing MLB free agency by moving when MLB’s agreement with its union classifies him as an amateur, subject to a minor league deal, six years of team control, and unable to cash in on any substantial income until he becomes arbitration eligible.