Here by two different reckonings are the best pitches thrown in Japan in the 2024 season.
The pitches are evaluated based primarily on how each one thrown changed the run expectation from before the pitch was thrown. There is a slight modification to eliminate some of the defensive bias — in that one quarter of the final pitches in a plate appearance are given the average value of the type of ball in play — simplified as balls that stay within the infield or balls that stay in play and get into the outfield.
The end results are also run adjusted, since the value of the runs surrendered vary with each team’s offensive context. Looking at a season as a whole, runs are more precious in Dragons games, nearly half of which are played at Nagoya Dome, than Swallows games, where nearly half are played at Jingu.
So without any further comment, here are the 10 best pitches by my ranking thrown in Japan this year that were thrown at least 300 times.
The average values are in the number of runs saved per pitch thrown, so the lower the better.
The top 10 pitches
| Pitcher | Team | Pitch | Avg val | Miss Pct. | Avg Velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daichi Ishii | T | 4 S | -.037 | 17.3 | 150.9 |
| Jeremy Beasley | T | Slider | -.032 | 29.3 | 129.8 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | G | Split | -.032 | 36.9 | 138.5 |
| Livan Moinelo | H | Slider | -.031 | 32.3 | 139.1 |
| Shoma Kanemura | F | Cutt | -.029 | 21.7 | 138.1 |
| Takahisa Hayakawa | E | Cha | -.029 | 38.5 | 131.3 |
| Carter Stewart Jr. | H | Split | -.028 | 42.6 | 135.4 |
| Kohei Arihara | H | Cutt | -.028 | 13.2 | 142.5 |
| Raidel Martinez | D | 4S | -.028 | 23.7 | 153.9 |
| Foster Griffin | G | Slider | -.026 | 33.8 | 128.9 |
| Kaima Taira | L | 4S | -.026 | 21.4 | 151.5 |
There are often discrepancies between my evaluations and Delta Graphs.’
Sometimes this is because the pitch description SpoNavi uses are often influenced by the names the pitchers’ gives them, rather than their properties. An example is the best pitch of DeNA’s Chihaya Sasaki is a slider while Delta classifies it as a curve.
Since I haven’t watched Sasaki a lot, I can’t contribute to the discussion. This is the point of the valuation: to use the numbers to guide toward physical observation and an understanding of how the numbers are what they are.
Top 10 four-seam fastballs
| Name | Team | Avg Val | Miss Pct. | Avg Velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daichi Ishii | T | -.037 | 17.3 | 150.9 |
| Raidel Martinez | D | -.028 | 23.7 | 153.9 |
| Rikuto Yokoyama | M | -.025 | 17.2 | 152.0 |
| Hiroya Miyagi | Bu | -.025 | 12.4 | 146.7 |
| Nobuyoshi Yamada | Bu | -.024 | 20.4 | 142.8 |
| Takahiro Matsuba | D | -.020 | 47.0 | 136.7 |
| Hiroto Takahashi | D | -.020 | 13.6 | 152.3 |
| Daisuke Moriura | C | -.020 | 14.0 | 146.5 |
| Roki Sasaki | M | -.020 | 12.5 | 155.9 |
| Hideaki Wakui | D | -.020 | 8.9 | 144.1 |
Top 10 Sliders
| Player | Team | Avg. Val | Miss Pct. | Avg. Velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Beasley | T | -.032 | 29.3 | 129.8 |
| Livan Moinelo | H | -.031 | 32.3 | 139.1 |
| Foster Griffin | G | -.026 | 33.8 | 128.9 |
| Koki Saito | D | -.022 | 27.1 | 126.3 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | G | -.021 | 22.8 | 132.4 |
| Roki Sasaki | M | -.020 | 39.9 | 134.6 |
| Tatsuki Koja | E | -.018 | 26.2 | 130.1 |
| Tatsuya Imai | L | -.016 | 40.8 | 139.4 |
| Tomohisa Ozeki | H | -.016 | 23.9 | 123.5 |
| Katsuki Azuma | BS | -.015 | 17.9 | 125.7 |
