Tag Archives: NPB

NPB managers and pinch-hitters

Having examined what happens when individual batters come off the bench to hit in NPB, and knowing that pinch-hitters, as a whole, are less productive in that role than they are when taking their regular turn in the batting order.

While the pinch-hitting penalty described by Tom Tango, Mitchel G. Lichtman and Andrew E. Dolphin in “The Book” does not appear to be nearly as extreme in NPB, their advice holds. Because they calculated that pinch-hitters wOBA is .034 less than when they bat in other contexts, they recommend managers only hit for position players using guys off the bench who are significantly better hitters.

Even if the pinch-hitting penalty is only .006 points of OPS2, it would behoove managers to at least use pinch-hitters who are somewhat better, because some managers don’t even do that.

In terms of the OPS2 managers have sacrificed and production gained during the period studied, here are the NPB managers who gotten the most mileage out of pinch-hitting for position players:

ManagerFranchisePH for pos playerPH season OPS2PH OPS2replaced OPS2PH GainPH expected gain
TanishigeD2080.3240.4080.2710.1370.053
OgiBu2250.3330.3790.3090.0700.024
OchiaiD6140.320.3540.2990.0550.021
NashidaE4090.3090.3110.2710.0400.038
HaraG12910.3260.3420.3040.0380.022
TakagiD2610.3250.3010.2640.0370.061
NomuraC5460.3080.3020.2660.0360.042
TakahashiG2930.3190.3260.2910.0350.028
TaoE2410.3140.3220.2870.0350.027
IshigeBu2380.2990.3190.2850.0340.014
RamirezBS2890.3010.2990.2690.0300.032
MayumiT3650.3130.3390.3100.0290.003
OhH10750.3010.3230.2950.0280.006
YamamotoC3010.3170.3290.3010.0280.016
FukuraBu5190.2990.3000.2720.0280.027
AkiyamaH7410.3060.3000.2740.0260.032
KudoH6160.3280.3190.2940.0250.034
ItoL7710.3380.3390.3150.0240.023
OkadaBu4690.2860.2930.2700.0230.016
MoriD2510.3100.3090.2880.0210.022
NPB managers with largest average gain in OPS2 when pinch-hitting for positon players from 2002-2018, minimum 200 PH appearances.

The next table gives the 20 managers who’ve replaced one position player with another at least 200 times between 2002 and 2018 and who got the least mileage for their changes.

In these lists, a few managers are given twice — for results with individual teams and for all the teams they managed during this period combined.

Least productive managers when pinch-hitting for position players

ManagerFranchisePH for pos playerPH season OPS2PH OPS2replaced OPS2PH GainPH expected gain
YamamotoM5390.3250.2720.315-0.0430.01
HoshinoE3350.2920.2510.293-0.042-0.001
HoshinoT & E total5050.3110.2570.295-0.0380.016
OkuboE2740.3020.2480.272-0.0240.03
MoriwakiBu4450.30.2770.301-0.024-0.001
NishimuraM4680.270.2490.272-0.023-0.002
OgataC3410.3540.2990.321-0.0220.033
YamadaD2070.3270.3080.326-0.0180.001
NashidaF6060.3010.2830.297-0.0140.004
NashidaKB6630.3430.3070.318-0.0110.025
IharaBu2000.3240.3370.345-0.008-0.021
NomuraE7470.3230.2910.297-0.0060.026
Nashida totalKB & F & E16780.3200.2990.2990.0000.021
KuriyamaF11170.3030.2920.290.0020.013
HillmanF8970.3150.3120.310.0020.005
LeeBu2120.3410.340.3380.0020.003
OishiBu2790.3230.3120.3090.0030.014
WatanabeL11840.2950.2920.2880.0040.007
OkadaT4870.3340.3230.3170.0060.017
ValentineM10340.3280.3340.3260.0080.002
NPB's least productive managers from 2002-2018 when pulling a position player for a pinch-hitter, minimum 200 pinch-hit appearances.

So the most successful employer of pinch-hitters in recent years was a playing-manager, Motonobu Tanishige, who often delegated bench decisions to his head coach, Shigekazu Mori, while No. 2 was Hall of Fame manager Akira Ogi, who was manager for only one year during the study, 2005, before his untimely death.

At the bottom of the table is the late Koji Yamamoto, who managed the Lotte Marines before Bobby Valentine took over the reins in 2004. Another Hall of Fame manager, Senichi Hoshino, finishes second worst with the Rakuten Eagles, and third worst for his time with both the Hanshin Tigers and Eagles combined.

And then there are the managers who’ve chosen, on average to replace position players with pinch-hitters of lesser value. The good news for Marines fans is that while Iguchi made some ostensibly dreadful choices last season, they did not hurt his club, since the pinch-hitters exceeded anyone’s expectations — except perhaps the skippers’.

Silly pinch-hitting choices

ManagerFranchisePH for pos playerPH season OPS2PH OPS2replaced OPS2PH GainPH expected gain
IguchiM1330.2710.3130.2950.018-0.024
IharaBu2000.3240.3370.345-0.008-0.021
BrownE980.290.2740.302-0.028-0.012
NakamuraBu1790.3130.3110.316-0.005-0.003
NishimuraM4680.270.2490.272-0.023-0.002
HoshinoE3350.2920.2510.293-0.042-0.001
MoriwakiBu4450.30.2770.301-0.024-0.001
Recent NPB managers who've used pinch-hitters of lower quality than the players they've batted for.

Size-mic shift

Just reminded of this by a Twitter post from the indefatigable @NPB_Reddit of the huge shift that took place in Japan in 2005, when among other things, NPB owners decided that they shouldn’t lie as much to the public as had been common practice.

I replied that the official description of attendance figures since 2005 is “realistic.”

Ironically, the move was kicked off by one of the worst perpetrators of fake attendance inflation, the Yomiuri Giants. The team’s owner at the time wanted to do it for two reasons:

  • People would hear TV announcers say the Tokyo Dome’s stated capacity of 55,000 was maxed out every night, and think no tickets were available so they would give up on getting tickets, and…
  • People watching on TV would hear the announcers say Tokyo Dome was sold out with a crowd of 55,000 and wonder why then there were so many empty seats.

Of course, that implies the fans were too dumb to notice that there were seats available. This reflects the general attitude of teams toward their players and customers that really came to a head in the 2004 season, when owners were keen to contract without any dialog with their customers and employees. In the ensuing strife, the owners were somewhat surprised to see the fans backing the players’ strike and applauding the players who were fighting for them against the wishes of the arrogant owners.

Unlike MLB, where visiting teams had for years received a cut of the gate, meaning attendance was counted, NPB home teams, receiving 100 percent of the home gate used attendance figures for public relations.

So how bad was the owners’ inflation attendance? I studied it 25 years ago, comparing All-Star and Japan Series attendance figures — which NPB used to divvy up the profits between the commissioners office and the teams and therefore actually had to count — and the regular season figures announced by the teams.

A clerk at the Seibu Lions told me that Seibu Stadium could hold an announced 50,000 during a holiday regular season game but only 31,883 during a Japan Series game against the Yomiuri Giants that same autumn because:

“The fire department doesn’t allow us to sell tickets during the Japan Series for people to sit on the stairs, so we can’t have crowds that big.

Seibu Lions team staff in 1995

Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Lions had simply been lying in the first place and then lying to cover it up.

Here are the maximum attendances in 2004 and 2005 for the 11 teams that played both seasons following the dismantling of the Kintetsu Buffaloes through its merger with the Orix BlueWave and the creation of the Rakuten Eagles.

LeagueTeamStadium (2004 name)2004 max 2005 max
CLGiantsTokyo Dome55,00046,129
CLTigersKoshien Stadium53,00048,576
CL DragonsNagoya Dome40,50038,300
CL SwallowsJingu Stadium45,00034,162
CL BayStarsYokohama Stadium30,00026,480
CL CarpHiroshima Citizens Stadium30,00030,059
PLLionsSeibu Dome48,00035,234
PLHawksFukuoka Dome48,00035,123
PLFightersSapporo Dome43,00035,156
PLMarinesChiba Marine Stadium35,00028,950
PLBlueWave-BuffaloesKobe (Yahoo BB) Stadium35,00031,681

A few comments are worth making. The Fighters would announce “realistic” crowd figures of around 42,000 starting in 2006, when they won their first pennant in Sapporo, although a team official at the time confided that his team fudged the numbers, and he suspected other teams did, too.

Perhaps the most egregious lie I can find in my data base belongs to the 1962 Toei Flyers, who claimed crowds on the opening weekend from 55,000 to 65,000 at Jingu Stadium. The park’s capacity may have been somewhat larger then, before the outfield grass seating was replaced by bleachers, but at the Japan Series that autumn against the Hanshin Tigers, the Flyers best crowd was 38,733.

It has been reported that the Yomiuri Giants wanted to be “honest” about the Tokyo Dome’s capacity when it opened in 1988, but found it would be hard to explain how they moved into a new park with a smaller capacity. The Giants had been announcing crowds of 50,000 at Korakuen Stadium, which never had a Japan Series crowd larger than 47,452. Tokyo Dome did have a slightly smaller capacity — around 46,500 when it was built, but the Giants couldn’t resist calling it 55,000.