Tag Archives: Roki Sasaki

Sasaki move means NPB needs a change

Roki Sasaki’s posting at the age of 23 is a wonderful opportunity for a player who has tremendous talent and who I believe is not taking it for granted that a huge MLB payday will still be within his reach two years from now.

It is, however, a problem for Nippon Professional Baseball, unless we take what Lotte Marines at their word, that they are happily giving up one of the nation’s greatest pitching talents for a million dollars and change because it feels right to them.

Unfortunately, dealing with this problem is going to take the kind of clever strategic thinking NPB rarely displays, either by negotiating a solution with its union or with MLB, which has frequently rewritten the posting system rules to suit its needs.

“I tell them, every time you sit down in New York with these people (MLB), the big leagues benefit as a league, their clubs benefit, the Japanese players benefit, and you guys (NPB) just bend over and take it.”

— NPB team executive in 2016

I don’t have objective proof that Roki Sasaki signed a contract as an 18-year-old amateur that contractually obligated the Marines to post him at the drop of his hat, but that is the best explanation for Lotte donating a player who makes millions of dollars a year for them to MLB.

I assume such a contract exists in the same way I assume that a guy running out of a bank with bags of money under his arm while alarm bells ring indicates the likely occurrence of a bank robbery.

The interesting thing is that while people allude to the possibility that such a contract might exist, pundits here blamed Sasaki for having the temerity to enforce it rather than the wisdom of having that huge loophole coexist with a posting system that rewards MLB teams for poaching Japan’s youngest stars.

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What Roki Sasaki is really teaching us

Because he is enormously talented, Roki Sasaki(s abandoning Japan’s major leagues for America’s has unleashed a flood of observations from both Japan and the United States.

While these observations tell us precious little about the 24-year-old pitcher himself, they do tell us a whole lot about America and Japan, how attitudes and expectations differ, and how both societies encourage us to overlook the value of individual choice.

Prelude: Baseball stuff

Because people ask me, I can tell you a few things about how Roki Sasaki pitched in 2024 In terms of how each pitch affected opponents’ run expectation and adjusted for his team’s offensive context.

  1. His fastball was more effective than it has ever been, even if his velocity was down, and he got fewer swings and misses and foul strikes.
  2. His slider was more effective than his splitter this year as he mastered a slower (sweeper) with more glove-side break.
  3. The split that had been one of the most effective thrown in Japan in 2022 and 2023, was not elite in 2024, with Japan’s best split this year thrown by a pitcher who should be available to MLB teams after the 2026 season – Carter Stewart Jr.

Sasaki throws extremely hard with an almost effortless-looking delivery, and has had trouble maintaining his place in a once-a-week six-pitcher starting rotation for more than about six weeks at a time. All that was known.

But what Sasaki’s posting has really done is give us a refresher course on how many in Japan and America see not only baseball through the lens of their cultural perspective but also how they judge an individual’s actions.

Different worlds

Sasaki’s move to MLB means different things in Japan and the United States.

In the U.S. it means a veteran of four major league seasons will miraculously become–to those unaccustomed to a world where everything is not all about America–a first-year major leaguer. In Japan, it is seen as a sign that the world respects Japanese pro baseball–even if that respect is just MLB’s coveting players under contract with Japan’s major league teams.

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