All posts by Jim Allen

sports editor for a wire service in Tokyo

What Roki Sasaki is really teaching us

Because he is enormously talented, Roki Sasaki(s abandoning Japan’s major leagues for America’s has unleashed a flood of observations from both Japan and the United States.

While these observations tell us precious little about the 24-year-old pitcher himself, they do tell us a whole lot about America and Japan, how attitudes and expectations differ, and how both societies encourage us to overlook the value of individual choice.

Prelude: Baseball stuff

Because people ask me, I can tell you a few things about how Roki Sasaki pitched in 2024 In terms of how each pitch affected opponents’ run expectation and adjusted for his team’s offensive context.

  1. His fastball was more effective than it has ever been, even if his velocity was down, and he got fewer swings and misses and foul strikes.
  2. His slider was more effective than his splitter this year as he mastered a slower (sweeper) with more glove-side break.
  3. The split that had been one of the most effective thrown in Japan in 2022 and 2023, was not elite in 2024, with Japan’s best split this year thrown by a pitcher who should be available to MLB teams after the 2026 season – Carter Stewart Jr.

Sasaki throws extremely hard with an almost effortless-looking delivery, and has had trouble maintaining his place in a once-a-week six-pitcher starting rotation for more than about six weeks at a time. All that was known.

But what Sasaki’s posting has really done is give us a refresher course on how many in Japan and America see not only baseball through the lens of their cultural perspective but also how they judge an individual’s actions.

Different worlds

Sasaki’s move to MLB means different things in Japan and the United States.

In the U.S. it means a veteran of four major league seasons will miraculously become–to those unaccustomed to a world where everything is not all about America–a first-year major leaguer. In Japan, it is seen as a sign that the world respects Japanese pro baseball–even if that respect is just MLB’s coveting players under contract with Japan’s major league teams.

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The “why” of Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki is coming, MLB ready or not.

I’ve talked about the “how,” in “Roki Sasaki’s unprecedented situation,” and you can read about the “what” – as in what he brings – in numerous scouting reports on the net. I’m bigger on his slider than most, and not as big on his fastball and split – although that split has been monstrous in the past and I expect it to rebound going forward.

Today, I’m going to tell you the “why” behind Roki Sasaki.

A posting was always in the cards

We could all guess back in 2019 that Roki Sasaki’s posting was inevitable, although the early timing came as a surprise.

Four teams went after Sasaki in the 2019, with the Pacific League’s Lotte Marines getting his rights by lottery. Japan’s hardest throwing high school pitcher had passed on signing with an MLB team because to do so prior to the summer of 2020 would have meant being classified as a pro prior to his final summer of high school ball and missing out on his shot at pitching in the summer nationals at Koshien Stadium.

Prior to the 2019 draft, it is likely Sasaki told would-be suitors he would only sign with teams willing to post him to MLB, because two teams that called him a generational talent after meeting with him, the Yomiuri Giants and SoftBank Hawks, did not nominate him as their top pick. Both of those clubs have long disparaged the posting system, and the Hawks have never used it, ever.

Why so early?

This is the big question.

By going at the age of 23, Sasaki is forgoing MLB free agency by moving when MLB’s agreement with its union classifies him as an amateur, subject to a minor league deal, six years of team control, and unable to cash in on any substantial income until he becomes arbitration eligible.

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