How would you pitch to Shohei Ohtani?

I was asked this morning how I would pitch to Shohei Ohtani, and since I can’t pitch, the answer would be to roll the ball up there until he takes first base.

Kidding aside, I hadn’t really thought much about it until now. It’s hardly an educated analysis, but he does hammer fat fastballs that aren’t at his knees, and chases sliders, splitters and changes that drop out of the zone when he’s looking to hit the ball hard. He’ll swing and miss a lot on those and on good high fastballs.

With that in mind…

He tries to drive the ball so much that he’ll chase splitters, sliders away, and change ups and look bad doing it.
I’d start him with a fastball or cutter (RHP) high and inside, then try to go low and away with something that drops. Two-seamers should kill him the 1st 6 months. NPB’s low mounds and rough balls make it hard to throw a good two-seamer here, so it’s a rarity.

You can mix in a slider on the hands to keep him off those pitches away. But don’t hang it. Same with fastballs that aren’t low in the zone. He’ll crush anything without bite or movement and drive it to center if its middle away.

He’s used to seeing the best curves in the world, so unless it’s coming off a fastball with two strikes it needs to be really good. To get ahead in the count, you have to throw strikes or be on the edge of the zone to start with because he has good discipline. However, because the NPB zone is truer horizontally — not shifted away from the hitter — than MLB’s used to be, so until he makes that adjustment, pitches outside that are balls in NPB but MLB strikes will be another challenge.

Japan’s double-edged weapon, Part 2

By Jim Allen

In the last post, I mentioned how visiting NPB teams were winning more often when they bunted in the first inning with no outs and a runner on first base. Someone suggested that perhaps scoring the first run when on the road was bigger than it is at home, but prior to 2011 — when teams were able to choose very lively balls, it was the home team that benefited by bunting in the bottom of the first in scoreless games.

Starting with play-by-play data from 2003 to 2016, I noted what the first batter did in the first inning what the following hitter did, how many runs were scored, each starting pitcher’s runs allowed per nine innings that season and whether the team won or lost.




From 2003 to 2010, visiting NPB teams posted a .458 win percentage in games when they attempted a bunt in the first inning after the leadoff man reached first base via a walk, a hit batsman, a single, an error, a fielder’s choice or an uncaught swinging third strike. When faced with those situations and the No. 2 hitter’s plate appearance did not end in an attempted bunt, the visitors posted a .504 winning percentage.

From 2011, visitors bunting in the first inning had .502 winning percentages, those not bunting in the top of the first with the No. 2 hitter had a .459 figure.

For home teams it was the reverse. Before 2011, they won more often when bunting. Since 2011, they are bunting more often and costing themselves wins.




writing & research on Japanese baseball

css.php