Tag Archives: Bill James

福留:今永選手は、私が越えられなかった壁を超えている

3月のMLB開幕シリーズで、福留孝介はMLBでプレーした5年間のキャリアについて語り、現在シカゴ・カブスで活躍する今永昇太が見事に成功を収めている分野で、自分は惨敗したと感じている。

MLBは選手層が厚く、全盛期に渡米した選手であってもNPB時代と同じような成功を収める者はごくわずかである。ビル・ジェームズが提唱した「Win Shares」という指標で見ると、MLBで一定期間プレーした日本人選手の中で、福留孝介ほど大きく成績を落とした選手はいなかった。苦戦を強いられた松井稼頭央でさえ、最終的にはMLBの環境に適応していった。

しかし、日本に帰国後、福留ほどの成績を残せた選手はほとんどいない。

2006年、セ・リーグで打率・出塁率・長打率の三冠を達成し、最も打者に不利な球場でプレーしながらもMVPにふさわしい活躍を見せた。そして、31歳の誕生日を2週間後に控えた2008年、シカゴ・カブスでMLBデビューを果たした。帰国後、彼は2013年、36歳で阪神タイガースに入団すると、再び輝きを取り戻した。

jballallen.com 日本語ペイジ

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2023 NPB win share awards

With the deadline to file my 2023 Pacific and Central league award and Golden Glove ballots fast approaching, I’ve spent much of the past two weeks in my annual number-crunching excursion into NPB’s team and individual performances.

As some of you know, I calculate Bill James’ Win Shares for NPB players, which in general agree with Wins Above Replacement except that pitching in WAR contributes roughly 60 percent of the value, with offense and defense sharing the rest. In Win Shares, offense is set at 42 percent, with pitchers and fielders splitting the remainder, with the size of the split largely determined by the quality of each team’s defensive and pitching stats.

To my thinking, the differences in these relative splits can be attributed to two things, that WAR assigns value based on the principle of scarcity an individual’s performance represents, while Win Shares assigns value on the principle that wins result from the contributions of each team’s pitchers, fielders and hitters, and examines individual results to assign the share each player contributes to team success with his batting, pitching and fielding.

The win share awards are results of calculations using complex algorithms, but are calculations producing estimates, not knowledge, and come with their own biases. These influence my own award voting, but do not represent my eventual decisions.

Each leader comes with his relative Win Shares total, and the score of the player with the next highest total. Although it lacks game-by-game observational accounts that result in the Ultimate Zone Rating used by WAR, and more detailed individual play metrics, Win Shares defense scores mesh well with WAR over a period of seasons, but individual years can provide some interesting results.

For the Golden Glove awards, I ranked players by their number of win shares at their position per 1,000 innings played. For both Best Nines and Win Shares, I limited the players ranked to those who spent at least half the season at that position.

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