The Seibu Lions are giving manager Kazuo Matsui the boot without saying they are giving him the boot, and a power hitter talks about this year’s soggy dead ball.
Due to work scheduling conflicts, I saw very, very little baseball this weekend. On Friday, I caught the start of Roki Sasaki‘s game when it looked like he’d be lucky to go five innings, caught the last the three innings of Shosei Togo‘s no-hit shutout, and the final inning of the Swallows’ extra-inning win against Raidel Martinez.
Let’s start with the game stuff
The No-No
I don’t really know how many no-hitters there have been in Japan, since only shutouts are counted, but of those the first two from the start of league play in 1936 were thrown by the Giants’ Eiji Sawamura against the Tigers, the first, in 1936 at Koshien, the second at the Giants’ first home ground on the Tokyo Bayside, Susaki Stadium, in 1937.
The deadline for submission is approaching and it’s time to open discussion about the candidates. In general, the whole “who’s in and who’s out” of the Hall of Fame sucks, both here and at America’s National Baseball Hall of Fame in New York, because it’s a binary thing.
It’s good that we have museums devoted to baseball, but using it to elevate flawed human beings to an exalted status as a celebration of triumphs that in a sense white-washes their failings. On top of that, Japan’s vote is largely a popularity contest where candidates are ignored if they did not get along well with the media.
Thus, we have a number of players, such as former Tigers shortstop Taira Fujita, who was one of the best ever who is not in and who will never get in, while qualified players such as sluggers Kazuhiro Wada and Norihiro Nakamura quickly dropped off the ballot because voters preferred to write the names of bunting heroes Masahiro Kawaii and Shinya Miyamoto on the ballot instead.
That out of the way, let’s start with my evaluations for this year’s Players Division Ballot:
First, let’s go over the pitchers, look at their careers, and how they stack up against current Hall of Famers.
This year’s ballot has three holdovers from 2023, Hiroki Kuroda, Masumi Kuwata, Shinji Sasaoka, and four newcomers: Career saves leader Hitoki Iwase and his Chunichi Dragons setup man Takuya Asao, Hawks and Giants lefty Toshiya Sugiuchi and Giants reliever Tetsuya Yamaguchi.
There are currently 33 pitchers in the Hall. Let’s break those down by the 30 who were primarily starters and the three who were primarily relievers. Let’s look at how each stacks up against the pitchers already in, their total career value, expressed in Bill James’ Win Shares, with one win share meaning he’s been credited with one third of a team win, and finally, how their career win shares compares with the group of current Hall of Fame starting pitchers and this years candidates.
Hall of fame candidates: Starting pitchers
Career WS
HOF Rank
Hiroki Kuroda
215
17
Masumi Kuwata
181
26
Shinji Sasaoka
163
28
Toshiya Sugiuchi
152
29
None of these four would be terrible selections by historic standards, but Kuroda is an obvious pick. Kuwata, however, led his league in complete games a Japan-record eight times. Kuroda doesn’t fare well in terms of wins because with the exception of his time with the New York Yankees and his last two seasons with Hiroshima, he toiled his entire career for teams that did not score.
Now let’s do relievers but with the three existing Hall of Famers included since it’s a small group.
The first reliever inducted into the Hall, Tsunemi Tsuda got in largely because he died from cancer just prior to his 33rd birthday, there were a number of tear-jerking programs about him on TV and specialist relievers were a new phenomenon in Japan and there were only a few pitchers to compare him with. As a result, he is perhaps the least-qualified player in the Hall.
Hall of Fame Relievers and current candidates
Reliever
Career WS
HOF Rank
Hitoki Iwase
152
1
Kazuhiro Sasaki
150
2
Shingo Takatsu
113
3
Tetsuya Yamaguchi
80
4
Tsunemi Tsuda
76
5
Takuya Asao
58
6
Players in bold have already been inducted. Others are on ballot
Obviously, Iwase, who has led his league in saves a record five times, is in a class by himself, and now that two lesser contemporaries, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Shingo Takatsu are in, it will be an easy trot for the lefty.
I’m saving five votes for position players and I could easily make it six or 10.
Position players
Below are this year’s candidates with their career win shares, the average win-share value of the best five-year stretch of their careers, the average win share value of the three best seasons of their career, and last year’s vote percentages.
2024 Hall Position Player Candidates
Career WS
5-year peak
Best 3 years
2023 pct
Kazuo Matsui
378
30.6
33.1
new
Nobuhiko Matsunaka
291
31.0
36.3
21.1
Michihiro Ogasawara
314
30.5
31.7
10.7
Tuffy Rhodes
298
25.8
33.8
20.0
Tadahito Iguchi
321
25.1
29.5
16.0
Atsunori Inaba
279
27.3
31.0
17.7
Kenji Jojima
270
28.0
30.7
9.3
Hiroki Kokubo
296
25.5
28.6
9.0
Takuro Ishii
281
24.1
26.8
13.8
Kenjiro Nomura
227
24.1
28.5
22.5
Yoshinobu Takahashi
247
20.2
26.2
4.5
Takahiro Arai
246
20.2
22.5
new
Tomonori Maeda
243
17.9
25.5
10.1
Motonobu Tanishige
288
17.4
21.3
71.3
Takeshi Yamasaki
219
18.9
24.7
8.5
Norihiro Akahoshi
133
20.2
24.5
6.2
Masahiro Araki
178
15.2
18.4
new
Masahiro Kawai
137
15.7
19.3
61.1
Shinya Miyamoto
188
13.7
16.0
54.1
So Taguchi
153
15.0
17.4
3.9
2024 Hall Position Player Candidates by: Career win shares, average of 5-year peak, average of 3 best seasons, 2023 p
It’s pretty clear that three guys are way ahead of the rest, Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Kazuo Matsui and Michihiro Ogasawara. After that it gets a little fuzzier. Tadahito Iguchi surpasses Tuffy Rhodes in career value, but not in peak value, and Atsunori Inaba is a just a little back of them as are Kenji Jojima and Hiroki Kokubo.
So here’s my ballot:
Kazuo Matsui
Michihiro Ogasawara
Nobuhiko Matsunaka
Tuffy Rhodes
Tadahito Iguchi
Hiroki Kuroda
Hitoki Iwase
My 2024 Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, with the name of my day job omitted
Of those seven, I’m guessing that only Kuroda, Matsui and Iwase will be inducted in their 15 years of eligibility on the Players Division ballot. Tuffy has five more to go, and then it will be up to the Experts Division, where media members of over 20 years and living Hall of Famers vote.
