Tag Archives: Roki Sasaki

Japan’s best pitches, 2024 part 1

Here by two different reckonings are the best pitches thrown in Japan in the 2024 season.

The pitches are evaluated based primarily on how each one thrown changed the run expectation from before the pitch was thrown. There is a slight modification to eliminate some of the defensive bias — in that one quarter of the final pitches in a plate appearance are given the average value of the type of ball in play — simplified as balls that stay within the infield or balls that stay in play and get into the outfield.

The end results are also run adjusted, since the value of the runs surrendered vary with each team’s offensive context. Looking at a season as a whole, runs are more precious in Dragons games, nearly half of which are played at Nagoya Dome, than Swallows games, where nearly half are played at Jingu.

Continue reading Japan’s best pitches, 2024 part 1

NPB news: Sept. 4, 2024

It’s been a few days without any game recaps as I’ve been trying to update a database to analyze the trove of pitch data I’ve been compiling for NPB games since 2020. This got supercharged Friday when Roki Sasaki turned his slider loose, and got another boost after a conversation Tuesday with a data scientist who is studying called balls and strikes in NPB. Attacking the data I did from a different direction but reaching a similar conclusion.

Spoiler alert: If you’re a Hanshin Tigers fan in need of something to complain about, I’ll provide it.

More on those later, though, after some notes about Wednesday’s games, when Shumpeita Yamashita Franmil Reyes remained on a roll, and Andre Jackson posted his third straight quality start for DeNA.

In other news, Masahiro Tanaka pitched on the farm today and threw 102 pitches over 5-2/3 innings in a game against DeNA, and said he was progressing toward being ready to resume pitching in Japan’s majors for the first time since having shoulder surgery last year.

Wednesday’s games

Swallows 3, Giants 0: At Osaka UFO Dome, Kojiro Yoshimura (6-8) scattered nine hits over the distance for his first career complete game. He struck out five but did not issue a walk.

Yomiuri’s Foster Griffin (6-4) got into his second straight pitchers’ duel against Yakult, and surrendered the first runs via the imported heart of the Swallows’ order, when Domingo Santana singled in the fourth and Jose Osuna followed with his 16th home run. Griffin struck out seven over seven innings, and Santana set up Yakult’s third run with his third hit of the game, an eighth-inning leadoff single.

Yoshimura, who allowed 14 runs over 21 innings in his last three starts, won for the first time since he threw 7-1/3 shutout innings against the Giants on June 21.

Continue reading NPB news: Sept. 4, 2024