Tadahito Iguchi | jballallen.com

Having examined what happens when individual batters come off the bench to hit in NPB, and knowing that pinch-hitters, as a whole, are less productive in that role than they are when taking their regular turn in the batting order.

While the pinch-hitting penalty described by Tom Tango, Mitchel G. Lichtman and Andrew E. Dolphin in “The Book” does not appear to be nearly as extreme in NPB, their advice holds. Because they calculated that pinch-hitters wOBA is .034 less than when they bat in other contexts, they recommend managers only hit for position players using guys off the bench who are significantly better hitters.

Even if the pinch-hitting penalty is only .006 points of OPS2, it would behoove managers to at least use pinch-hitters who are somewhat better, because some managers don’t even do that.

In terms of the OPS2 managers have sacrificed and production gained during the period studied, here are the NPB managers who gotten the most mileage out of pinch-hitting for position players:

Manager	Franchise	PH for pos player	PH season OPS2	PH OPS2	replaced OPS2	PH Gain	PH expected gain
Tanishige	D	208	0.324	0.408	0.271	0.137	0.053
Ogi	Bu	225	0.333	0.379	0.309	0.070	0.024
Ochiai	D	614	0.32	0.354	0.299	0.055	0.021
Nashida	E	409	0.309	0.311	0.271	0.040	0.038
Hara	G	1291	0.326	0.342	0.304	0.038	0.022
Takagi	D	261	0.325	0.301	0.264	0.037	0.061
Nomura	C	546	0.308	0.302	0.266	0.036	0.042
Takahashi	G	293	0.319	0.326	0.291	0.035	0.028
Tao	E	241	0.314	0.322	0.287	0.035	0.027
Ishige	Bu	238	0.299	0.319	0.285	0.034	0.014
Ramirez	BS	289	0.301	0.299	0.269	0.030	0.032
Mayumi	T	365	0.313	0.339	0.310	0.029	0.003
Oh	H	1075	0.301	0.323	0.295	0.028	0.006
Yamamoto	C	301	0.317	0.329	0.301	0.028	0.016
Fukura	Bu	519	0.299	0.300	0.272	0.028	0.027
Akiyama	H	741	0.306	0.300	0.274	0.026	0.032
Kudo	H	616	0.328	0.319	0.294	0.025	0.034
Ito	L	771	0.338	0.339	0.315	0.024	0.023
Okada	Bu	469	0.286	0.293	0.270	0.023	0.016
Mori	D	251	0.310	0.309	0.288	0.021	0.022

NPB managers with largest average gain in OPS2 when pinch-hitting for positon players from 2002-2018, minimum 200 PH appearances.

The next table gives the 20 managers who’ve replaced one position player with another at least 200 times between 2002 and 2018 and who got the least mileage for their changes.

In these lists, a few managers are given twice — for results with individual teams and for all the teams they managed during this period combined.

Least productive managers when pinch-hitting for position players

Manager	Franchise	PH for pos player	PH season OPS2	PH OPS2	replaced OPS2	PH Gain	PH expected gain
Yamamoto	M	539	0.325	0.272	0.315	-0.043	0.01
Hoshino	E	335	0.292	0.251	0.293	-0.042	-0.001
Hoshino	T & E total	505	0.311	0.257	0.295	-0.038	0.016
Okubo	E	274	0.302	0.248	0.272	-0.024	0.03
Moriwaki	Bu	445	0.3	0.277	0.301	-0.024	-0.001
Nishimura	M	468	0.27	0.249	0.272	-0.023	-0.002
Ogata	C	341	0.354	0.299	0.321	-0.022	0.033
Yamada	D	207	0.327	0.308	0.326	-0.018	0.001
Nashida	F	606	0.301	0.283	0.297	-0.014	0.004
Nashida	KB	663	0.343	0.307	0.318	-0.011	0.025
Ihara	Bu	200	0.324	0.337	0.345	-0.008	-0.021
Nomura	E	747	0.323	0.291	0.297	-0.006	0.026
Nashida total	KB & F & E	1678	0.320	0.299	0.299	0.000	0.021
Kuriyama	F	1117	0.303	0.292	0.29	0.002	0.013
Hillman	F	897	0.315	0.312	0.31	0.002	0.005
Lee	Bu	212	0.341	0.34	0.338	0.002	0.003
Oishi	Bu	279	0.323	0.312	0.309	0.003	0.014
Watanabe	L	1184	0.295	0.292	0.288	0.004	0.007
Okada	T	487	0.334	0.323	0.317	0.006	0.017
Valentine	M	1034	0.328	0.334	0.326	0.008	0.002

NPB's least productive managers from 2002-2018 when pulling a position player for a pinch-hitter, minimum 200 pinch-hit appearances.

So the most successful employer of pinch-hitters in recent years was a playing-manager, Motonobu Tanishige, who often delegated bench decisions to his head coach, Shigekazu Mori, while No. 2 was Hall of Fame manager Akira Ogi, who was manager for only one year during the study, 2005, before his untimely death.

At the bottom of the table is the late Koji Yamamoto, who managed the Lotte Marines before Bobby Valentine took over the reins in 2004. Another Hall of Fame manager, Senichi Hoshino, finishes second worst with the Rakuten Eagles, and third worst for his time with both the Hanshin Tigers and Eagles combined.

And then there are the managers who’ve chosen, on average to replace position players with pinch-hitters of lesser value. The good news for Marines fans is that while Iguchi made some ostensibly dreadful choices last season, they did not hurt his club, since the pinch-hitters exceeded anyone’s expectations — except perhaps the skippers’.

Silly pinch-hitting choices

Manager	Franchise	PH for pos player	PH season OPS2	PH OPS2	replaced OPS2	PH Gain	PH expected gain
Iguchi	M	133	0.271	0.313	0.295	0.018	-0.024
Ihara	Bu	200	0.324	0.337	0.345	-0.008	-0.021
Brown	E	98	0.29	0.274	0.302	-0.028	-0.012
Nakamura	Bu	179	0.313	0.311	0.316	-0.005	-0.003
Nishimura	M	468	0.27	0.249	0.272	-0.023	-0.002
Hoshino	E	335	0.292	0.251	0.293	-0.042	-0.001
Moriwaki	Bu	445	0.3	0.277	0.301	-0.024	-0.001

Recent NPB managers who've used pinch-hitters of lower quality than the players they've batted for.

Tough to Swallow

Junji Ogawa announced Sunday for the second time in six years that he no longer wants to manage the Central League’s Yakult Swallows. The team is in last place and has been eliminated from playoff contention. Ogawa took over last year and led the Swallows to second place. In six seasons over two terms, he has led them to the postseason three times.

Head coach Shinya Miyamoto, who was expected to take over after a brief coaching stint, said he wants no part of the job either. One potential candidate to manage is current farm manager and former pitching coach Shingo Takatsu.

If Takatsu does take over, he’ll become the second Japanese former major leaguer to manage a top-flight NPB club after fellow former White Sox infielder Tadahito Iguchi took over the Pacific League’s Lotte Marines in 2018.

Pacific League

Hawks 9, Marines 6

At Yafuoku Dome, Lotte’s Brandon Laird homered, reached base four times and drove in four runs, but SoftBank came back against starter Atsuki Taneichi to tie it in the seventh inning on a pinch-hit RBI single by Keizo Kawashima. Kenji Akashi’s eighth-inning pinch-hit double put the Hawks ahead in the eighth before Kawashima doubled in an insurance run.

Hawks starter Shota Takeda put the home team in a bind by allowing four runs over four innings. Taneichi allowed six runs in 6-1/3, and the Marines bullpen let the game get away further.

Game highlights are HERE.

Lions 3, Eagles 2

At Rakuten Seimei Park, Takeya Nakamura doubled in two runs for Seibu and Hotaka Yamakawa doubled in another run in the eighth after Rakuten’s Jabari Blash tied it in the sixth with his 31st home run.

Game highlights are HERE.

Fighters 2, Buffaloes 0

At Sapporo Dome, the future and past crossed paths as former Orix ace Chihiro Kaneko (6-4) matched his season-high of six innings to outpitch the Buffaloes best young pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-5), who held Nippon Ham to an unearned run over six innings.

Yamamoto was on the mound for the first time since straining his left oblique muscles on Aug. 3. He allowed three hits and struck out six without issuing a walk.

The Fighters’ future and past also collided as their former closer, Hirotoshi Masui surrendered a solo homer to up-and-coming slugger Kotaro Kiyomiya.

Game highlights are HERE.

Let’s pretend it never happened

For some reason, Nippon Ham Fighters manager Hideki Kuriyama has decided to ditch the idea of openers and short starters. On Sunday, Chihiro Kaneko worked six innings, marking the first time this season that Fighters starters have worked six innings or more in three consecutive games.

They have also equaled the team’s longest streak of consecutive five-plus inning starts.

Mizuki Hori, who had been dynamite as the opener, has been demoted to the farm, where he is pitching occasionally and striking out batters, something one imagines would be more useful on the first team.

It’s almost as if there was a purge and evidence of the experiment, Hori, has been sent into exile in the team’s Kamagaya gulag.

Central League

Dragons 5, BayStars 2

At Nagoya Dome, Chunichi’s Yudai Ono (8-8) lost his bid for a shutout when DeNA’s Neftali Soto hit his 36th home run, a two-run shot in the ninth. The win was Chunichi’s sixth straight after sweeping the league’s top two teams, the Giants and BayStars.

As they have for the past week or so, the Dragons continued to be tenacious at the plate and on the bases. Yota Kyoda legged out a triple in the fourth inning and scored from third on a foul pop down the first base line. With Ono cruising, Nobumasa Fukuda essentially put the game away in the sixth with a two-run double.

Carp 3, Tigers 2

At Mazda Stadium, Hiroshima’s Hisayoshi Chono singled in two runs and made a good catch in left field to help Kris Johnson (11-7) earn the win over Hanshin with six scoreless innings.

Geronimo Franzua entered the game with two outs in the eighth and a runner on second. He surrendered an RBI double to make it a 3-2 game and walked the next batter before retiring the last four he faced to earn his 11th save.

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Tag Archives: Tadahito Iguchi

NPB managers and pinch-hitters

Least productive managers when pinch-hitting for position players

Silly pinch-hitting choices

NPB games, news of Sept. 8, 2019

Tough to Swallow

Pacific League

Hawks 9, Marines 6

Lions 3, Eagles 2

Fighters 2, Buffaloes 0

Let’s pretend it never happened

Central League

Dragons 5, BayStars 2

Carp 3, Tigers 2

writing & research on Japanese baseball