If someone reading has any influence in Rakuten land, perhaps they can suggest Ginjiro Sumitani stop swinging at first-pitches unless he’s sitting on a pitch right down the pipe, because whatever he’s trying it isn’t working.
Through Saturday, July 16, Sumitani was tied for the least productive first-pitch swings among the 100 players with 150 or more plate appearances with Jose Osuna of the Yakult Swallows. But unlike Osuna, who takes first pitches 75 percent of the time, Sumitani takes just 50.3 percent of the first pitches he sees.
Those results are from a study of pitches this season, and how counts affect eventual outcomes. Hitters putting the first pitch in play are batting .308 this season, but that comes without the cost of swinging at the first pitch and either missing it or fouling it off, which contributes to more outs on other counts.
I’m interested in how much those additional strikes cost compared to the balls and called strikes that occur when taking the first pitch. The result I arrived at in my pilot study indicates that the median value of taking the first pitch is close to a 10th of a run, while the median value of swinging at the first pitch is almost the same.
Batters in Japan this year have a .710 OPS after getting ahead in the count 1-0, and a .529 OPS when falling behind 0-1. That’s the difference between having Haruki Nishikawa at the plate or the afore mentioned Sumitani.
OPS, RC passing through different counts
| Count | OPS | RC per pitch |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | .945 | .200 |
| 2-0 | .874 | .175 |
| 3-2 | .737 | .141 |
| 3-1 | .728 | .137 |
| 1-0 | .709 | .121 |
| 2-1 | .685 | .119 |
| 2-2 | .655 | .110 |
| 1-1 | .553 | .073 |
| 1-2 | .531 | .065 |
| 0-1 | .528 | .062 |
| 0-2 | .469 | .044 |
The idea is not to either take more first pitches or to swing at more first pitches, but to get the best result. The ideal is to hammer fat first pitches, while laying off tough strikes and balls and in so doing get better pitches to hit later in the at-bat.
How can we quantify this?
That’s something I’m still working on. Right now, I have generic run expectations for NPB as a whole, but batters are not generic. Their tactical approaches within at-bats are unique. And while I work on some solutions for that problem, I’ll give you some top-5 lists from the 100 regulars studied.
1-0 count percentage: Top 5
| Player | Team | 1-0 pct |
|---|---|---|
| Toshiki Abe | Dragons | 56.3 |
| Kotaro Kiyomiya | Fighters | 55.0 |
| Sho Nakata | Giants | 53.6 |
| Yoshihiro Maru | Giants | 52.8 |
| Shota Dobayashi | Carp | 52.2 |
1-0 count percentage: Bottom 5
| Player | Team | 1-0 pct |
|---|---|---|
| Kairi Shimada | Tigers | 34.4 |
| Kosuke Ukai | Dragons | 34.9 |
| Yamato Maeda | BayStars | 35.3 |
| Ginjiro Sumitani | Eagles | 36.0 |
| Yutaro Sugimoto | Buffaloes | 36.4 |
1st-pitch offer RC outcomes : Best 5
| Player | Team | RC per pitch |
|---|---|---|
| Yusuke Oyama | Tigers | .169 |
| Munetaka Murakami | Swallows | .164 |
| Shogo Sakakura | Carp | .163 |
| Kazunari Ishii | Fighters | .158 |
| Tatsuru Yanagimachi | Hawks | .149 |
1st-pitch offer RC outcomes : Worst 5
| Player | Team | RC per pitch |
|---|---|---|
| Keita Nakagawa | Buffaloes | .037 |
| Jose Osuna | Swallows | .038 |
| Ginjiro Sumitani | Eagles | .038 |
| Takeya Nakamura | Lions | .041 |
| Ryutaro Umeno | Tigers | .042 |
