Category Archives: Commentary

Arms control comes to Japanese high school ball

Japanese high school baseball, where epic feats of pitching endurance are as much a part of the narrative as who wins or loses, will get a new look next spring, thanks to the efforts of Niigata Prefecture’s high school baseball federation.

The local federation will prevent pitchers in next spring’s prefectural tournament from starting an inning after throwing 100 pitches. That’s it. No recommended rest, no reduced limits for pitchers on short rest.

But for Japan, this is radical stuff.

A Kyodo News story reported Saturday that the prefecture acted because too few youngsters are signing up for high school ball. After forming a committee to look into the problem, it was decided that one way to maintain participation in the sport was to keep players healthy.


“If we ruin fewer talented players, the level of Japanese baseball will improve.”

Dr. Kozo Furushima, head of Keiyu Orthopedic Surgical Hospital

reported Saturday that the prefecture acted because too few youngsters are signing up for high school ball. After forming a committee to look into the problem, it was decided that one way to maintain participation in the sport was to keep players healthy.

The story cited MLB’s “Pitch Smart” guidelines, which you can find here. The story also quoted Dr. Kozo Furushima, whose hospital in Gunma Prefecture is a go-to for Tommy John surgeries in Japan.

“If we ruin fewer talented players, the level of Japanese baseball will improve,” Furushima said.

Nippon Ham Fighters manager Hideki Kuriyama was also quoted by the Kyodo story, saying, “There will be a lot of objection to this (pitch limit) but I want them to give their best shot.”

Pitch smart risk factors:

  • The American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) found that adolescent pitchers who undergo elbow or shoulder surgery are 36 times more likely to have routinely pitched with arm fatigue.
  • ASMI found that players who pitched more than 100 innings in at least one year were 3.5 times more likely to be injured than those who did not exceed 100 innings pitched. Every inning — whether it be during a game or showcase event — should count toward that threshold.
  • ASMI also found that pitchers who competed more than 8 months per year were 5 times as likely to suffer an injury requiring surgery. Pitchers should refrain from throwing for at least 2-3 months per year and avoid competitive pitching for at least 4 months per year.
  • Daily, weekly and annual overuse is the greatest risk to a youth pitcher’s health. Numerous studies have shown that pitchers who throw more pitches per game and those who do not adequately rest between appearances are at an elevated risk of injury. While medical research does not identify optimal pitch counts, pitch count programs have been shown to reduce the risk of shoulder injury in Little League Baseball by as much as 50% (Little League, 2011). The most important thing is to set limits for a pitcher and stick with them throughout the season.
  • Pitchers should avoid pitching on consecutive days, if possible, irrespective of pitch count. According to Yang et al., pitchers who pitched on consecutive days had more than 2.5 times greater risk of experiencing arm pain, compared with pitchers who did not pitch on consecutive days.

More about peak values

Having a lot of information at your finger tips doesn’t necessarily mean you know what’s going on.

I was reminded of this again on Friday, when doing a story about Yuki Yanagita’s new contract with the SoftBank Hawks. He revealed that he will be paid 570 million yen ($5.11 million) next year — which on the surface would make him the highest-paid Japanese player in team history.

And though I have given Yanagita first-place MVP votes three times over the past four years — the fourth went to Shohei Ohtani in 2016 — I’d never noticed that he’d led the Pacific League in both on-base percentage and slugging average the past four seasons.

Yanagita entered the season as one of only three players to have managed that feat for three straight years. With his fourth, he surpassed Hall of Famer Shigeo Nagashima. Next in line is Sadaharu Oh, who did it not five or even six straight years, but 11, so that record, like so many of Oh’s is safe.

Since delving into peak performance the past few days as a way of analyzing Hall of Fame candidates, I was curious how Yanagita’s past five seasons — I’d used five-year averages of win shares — stacked up all time. What I found was not entirely surprising.

Yanagita has averaged 32.6 win shares since 2014. The only recent player to better that figure was Hideki Matsui from 1998 to 2002. The only contemporary player to come close is, not surprisingly, Yakult Swallows second baseman Tetsuto Yamada.

Aside from Matsui and Yanagita, no player has had as good a five-year stretch since Oh (1973 to 1977). Oh turned pro out of high school in 1959 and his career was winding down, but he was still a dominant hitter. But basically, what you get is a list of Hall of Fame pitchers in NPB’s dead-ball 1950s and a bunch of Hall of Fame hitters from the early 1960s.

This shouldn’t be a surprise because the talent depth in NPB in the 1950s and 1960s was vastly worse than today, and the best players towered over the competition to a greater degree than they have since. Still, it was only a few players, Oh, Nagashima, Japan’s greatest catcher Katsuya Nomura, Japan’s all-time hits leader Isao Harimoto, Kazuhiro Yamauchi and three great pitchers, Masaichi Kaneda, Kazuhisa Inao and Shigeru Sugishita.

When Yamada had his huge season in 2015, I estimated it was the third or fourth best season in NPB history, but since then it hadn’t occurred to me how rare his and Yanagita’s accomplishments have been in the context of today’s game.