Category Archives: News

Arms control comes to Japanese high school ball

Japanese high school baseball, where epic feats of pitching endurance are as much a part of the narrative as who wins or loses, will get a new look next spring, thanks to the efforts of Niigata Prefecture’s high school baseball federation.

The local federation will prevent pitchers in next spring’s prefectural tournament from starting an inning after throwing 100 pitches. That’s it. No recommended rest, no reduced limits for pitchers on short rest.

But for Japan, this is radical stuff.

A Kyodo News story reported Saturday that the prefecture acted because too few youngsters are signing up for high school ball. After forming a committee to look into the problem, it was decided that one way to maintain participation in the sport was to keep players healthy.


“If we ruin fewer talented players, the level of Japanese baseball will improve.”

Dr. Kozo Furushima, head of Keiyu Orthopedic Surgical Hospital

reported Saturday that the prefecture acted because too few youngsters are signing up for high school ball. After forming a committee to look into the problem, it was decided that one way to maintain participation in the sport was to keep players healthy.

The story cited MLB’s “Pitch Smart” guidelines, which you can find here. The story also quoted Dr. Kozo Furushima, whose hospital in Gunma Prefecture is a go-to for Tommy John surgeries in Japan.

“If we ruin fewer talented players, the level of Japanese baseball will improve,” Furushima said.

Nippon Ham Fighters manager Hideki Kuriyama was also quoted by the Kyodo story, saying, “There will be a lot of objection to this (pitch limit) but I want them to give their best shot.”

Pitch smart risk factors:

  • The American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) found that adolescent pitchers who undergo elbow or shoulder surgery are 36 times more likely to have routinely pitched with arm fatigue.
  • ASMI found that players who pitched more than 100 innings in at least one year were 3.5 times more likely to be injured than those who did not exceed 100 innings pitched. Every inning — whether it be during a game or showcase event — should count toward that threshold.
  • ASMI also found that pitchers who competed more than 8 months per year were 5 times as likely to suffer an injury requiring surgery. Pitchers should refrain from throwing for at least 2-3 months per year and avoid competitive pitching for at least 4 months per year.
  • Daily, weekly and annual overuse is the greatest risk to a youth pitcher’s health. Numerous studies have shown that pitchers who throw more pitches per game and those who do not adequately rest between appearances are at an elevated risk of injury. While medical research does not identify optimal pitch counts, pitch count programs have been shown to reduce the risk of shoulder injury in Little League Baseball by as much as 50% (Little League, 2011). The most important thing is to set limits for a pitcher and stick with them throughout the season.
  • Pitchers should avoid pitching on consecutive days, if possible, irrespective of pitch count. According to Yang et al., pitchers who pitched on consecutive days had more than 2.5 times greater risk of experiencing arm pain, compared with pitchers who did not pitch on consecutive days.

1st ballot Hall of Fame voter

Eighteen players to choose from and seven votes.

I’ve noted in several recent posts that the membership of Japan’s baseball Hall of Fame is badly skewed toward pitchers, first basemen and outfielders. That will change within the next 10 years when Tadahito Iguchi and Kazuo Matsui are on the ballot, since they were among the most valuable players in the game during their heyday.

To review,  here is this winter’s players division ballot, with the percentage of votes received in last year’s ballot:

  • Kazuyoshi Tatsunami 2B 65.8
  • Shingo Takatsu RP 45.9
  • Masahiro Kawai SS 35.9
  • Kenjiro Nomura SS 28.5
  • Tuffy Rhodes OF 22.8
  • Hiroki Kokubo 3B 21.7
  • Masumi Kuwata SP 21.2
  • Takuro Ishii SS 19.3
  • Kenji Jojima C 14.1
  • Shinji Sasaoka SP 9.5
  • So Taguchi OF 7.9
  • Norihiro Akahoshi OF 5.4
  • Kazuhisa Ishii SP new
  • Shinya Miyamoto SS new
  • Tomonori Maeda OF new
  • Takeshi Yamasaki IB new
  • Shinjiro Hiyama OF new
  • Alex Ramirez OF new

My picks were:

  1. Kazuyoshi Tatsunami
  2. Shingo Takatsu
  3. Tuffy Rhodes
  4. Hiroki Kokubo
  5. Takuro Ishii
  6. Kenji Jojima
  7. Alex Ramirez
The 15 position players on this winter’s ballots,  ranked by career win shares.
The four pitchers on this winter’s ballot, ranked by career win shares.

The big debates were between closer Shingo Takatsu and starter Masumi Kuwata, and between outfielders Tomonori Maeda and Alex Ramirez. 

Kuwata won a Sawamura Award as Japan’s most impressive starting pitcher, but in historic terms his career would be one of the weakest among starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Takatsu was a solid — if not dominant — closer on a team that won five pennants.

Ramirez finishes behind Maeda in career win shares and was not as much a complete player as Maeda was a youngster before injuries took their toll on his career. But Ramirez had a much-higher peak ceiling and won two straight Central League MVP awards.

Some other notes:

  • Tatsunami, even at his peak, was never considered one of the league’s elite players. He never led the Dragons in win shares in any one season. His genius was in being really good for a long, long time, and that’s worth something.
  • Takatsu is a relief version of Tatsunami, a very good reliever for a long time in a generation when closers were usually burned out after a season or two.
  • Rhodes should be a stronger candidate than he has been. He was a league leader in an offensive category 18 times. No player has ever led his league in as many as 16 categories and not been elected to the Hall of Fame.
  • Kokubo was a leader on both the first Hawks dynasty in Fukuoka under Daiei and the second under SoftBank before his retirement.
  • Takuro Ishii was a very similar player to Tatsunami, but with more defensive value and fewer extra bases.
  • Jojima was Japan’s premier catcher from 1999 to 2005 during his time with the Hawks, then spent four years in the majors before returning to play at a high level for the Hanshin Tigers. 

On second thought, I looked at each position player’s highest peak, by measuring their average win shares over each five-year period of their career (see table below). The surprise for me here, is not that Rhodes and Jojima are head and shoulders above everyone else but that Kenjiro Nomura, whom I didn’t vote for, and Takuro Ishii, whom I did, rank so much higher than Ramirez, and that through this analysis, Kokubo becomes a corner-infield version of Tatsunami, whose peak value ranks seventh out of 14.

When you look at all of each player’s running five year averages, however, it is clear that Nomura’s extreme peak was briefer than Ishii’s. It is also clear that Ramirez and Nomura were very close in both peak and total value. The real question of who belongs and who doesn’t was not between Tomonori Maeda and Ramirez, but between Nomura and Ramirez and Kokubo.