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The Heisei ERA, part 2

On this past week’s Japan Baseball Weekly Podcast, a listener asked:

  1. Who had the single most dominant season in the Heisei era (1989 to April 30, 2019)?
  2. Who was the best player of the Heisei era in NPB?

To recap our answers, we split on Question 1. John (@JBWPodcast) Gibson answered Masahiro Tanaka‘s 2013, 24-0 MVP season for the Rakuten Eagles, while I had Tetsuto Yamada‘s 2015 MVP season at second base for the Yakult Swallows, which ranks — according to Bill James’ win shares — as the seventh most valuable season in Japanese pro baseball history.

The Heisei Most Dominant Season Award

Tanaka’s season ranks 457th overall among all players in history, and second behind Hall of Famer Masaki Saito’s 1989 season for the Yomiuri Giants. But if one thinks about how the game has changed, Tanaka’s season is pretty darn remarkable.

The quality of play in NPB has increased steadily along with the number of pitches needed to get batters out. Saito, who is a big strong guy like Tanaka had a season that was a little better but required 33 more innings to accomplish.

In terms of how much Tanaka accomplished per inning pitched, his 2013 season is third in Japanese baseball history, behind two more Hall of Famers, Masaichi Kaneda (1958, Kokutetsu Swallows) and Tadashi Sugiura (1959, Nankai Hawks) during Japan’s most pitcher-friendly years since the end of World War II.

John, for those of you who haven’t heard it, brought up Wladimir Balentien‘s 60-home run 2013 season, but Win Shares has that ranked right behind Hotaka Yamakawa‘s MVP season last year for the Seibu Lions and the 28th most valuable during the Heisei era.

The Heisei MVP Award

John and I both picked Tomoaki Kanemoto as the Heisei MVP, which came as a shock to Mr. Gibson. The question excluded Ichiro Suzuki, but if I valued his MLB win shares at 1.2 per NPB WS, he ranks as the undisputed Heisei king. Through that somewhat conservative formula, Suzuki’s 540 ranks him third in Japanese baseball history, far behind the run-away leader, Sadaharu Oh (723 WS) and catcher Katsuya Nomura (581). Because the bulk of Suzuki’s win shares come from MLB, he would shoot past Nomura if each WS was valued at 1.5 per NPB win share.

If we allowed MLB win shares, Kanemoto would finish third, right behind Hideki Matsui.

Anyway, here are the top Heisei win share seasons:

Position players

PlayerYearTeamWS
1. Tetsuto Yamada2015Swallows46.8
2. Yuki Yanagita2015Hawks42.0
3. Hideki Matsui2002Giants41.7
4. Ichiro Suzuki1995BlueWave40.5
5. Kosuke Fukudome2006Dragons39.1
6. Kazuo Matsui2002Lions38.8
7. Alex Cabrera2002Lions37.7
8. Tuffy Rhodes2001Buffaloes37.4
9. Yuki Yanagita2018Hawks36.4
10. Takeya Nakamura2011Lions35.8

Pitchers

PlayerYearTeamWS
1. Masaki Saito1989Giants29.8
2. Masahiro Tanaka2013Eagles27.3
3. Masaki Saito1990Giants26.6
4. Masahiro Tanaka2011Eagles26.3
5. Hideo Nomo1990Buffaloes25.1
6. Hideyuki Awano1989Buffaloes24.2
7. Shinji Imanaka1993Dragons23.2
8. Tomoyuki Sugano2017Giants23.2
9. Yu Darvish2008Fighters23.1
10. Koji Uehara1999Giants22.8

And for the guy who doesn’t fit anywhere easily, Shohei Ohtani had 32.3 win shares in 2016 as a pitcher and a hitter, and would have ranked high in either list had he only batted or pitched.

You can find my post on NPB’s Heisei era pitching leaders HERE.

Monday musings: Dave’s return

No, Dave Okubo is not back with the Rakuten Eagles, but we wouldn’t know it from the number of outs they’ve made on the bases through their first nine games.

When Hiromoto Okubo managed the Eagles in 2015, the Auduban Society had to disassociate itself from Rakuten because of the number of Eagles who were being slaughtered on Japan’s base paths that season. It’s been four years, but the reckless version of the Eagles have returned with a vengeance.

The Eagles’ offense has actually functioned so far this year. They finished the season’s second weekend with 45 runs, tied with the SoftBank Hawks for second behind the Seibu Lions for both the Pacific League and NPB lead. They’ve 121 runners, excluding home runs, which is second in NPB behind the Lions. The problem is 18 of those have been lost on the bases — which doesn’t count the eight removed on ground ball double plays (tied for second most in NPB

Pct of runners’ outs on bases (through 4/7)

TeamBase running outsTotal BRPct
Eagles18121.140
Buffaloes996.093
Hawks9109.064
Marines790.056
Giants6112.054
Tigers594.053
Lions7124.048
Fighters5106.047
Carp391.033
Swallows391.033
Dragons5102.029
BayStars198.010

The Eagles’ outs break down as follows: runners out on bases: 9, caught stealing 7, picked off 2.

No sacrifice is too great

Despite the fact that Pacific League pitchers only bat in nine games a season — when on the road during interleague play against Central League opponents, PL teams typically sacrifice more often. In the past eight seasons since a uniform ball was employed in 2011, the PL has sacrificed more often than the CL.

This year, however, it seems to be the CL’s turn for the ultimate sacrifices again. Last year, the CL also led by sacrificing 2.2 percent of the times a runner was on first base, while the PL was getting the bunt down 2 percent of the time.

Two things appear to be driving the change: 1) an influx of new managers who bunt less, Seibu’s Hatsuhiko Tsuji, Rakuten’s Yosuke Hiraishi and Lotte’s Tadahito Iguchi, and 2) a change of heart in Sapporo. The Nippon Ham Fighters, once one of NPB’s most bunt-happy teams under former university teacher Hideki Kuriyama, have begun to shy away from the sacrifice.

One wonders whether there is any connection between having a general manager who is familiar with sabermetrics in Hiroshi Yoshimura and the Fighters’ more astute look. The Fighters definitely employed an extreme infield shift last week against the Rakuten Eagles, and are also dabbling with the use of an opener.

This spring so far, five of the six PL clubs are among the six least-frequent sacrificing teams. The PL’s Orix Buffaloes, run by old-school skipper Norifumi Nishimura rank sixth, and have been the PL club most likely to bunt.

And while you’re looking at the table, spare some time for a round of applause for Iguchi and the Marines.

Team sacrifice attempt pct (through 4/7)

TeamSHFailed SHRunners on 1BAttempt pct
Dragons10278.154
Tigers7375.133
BayStars9179.127
Giants7395.105
Carp6277.104
Buffaloes3282.061
Swallows3171.056
Hawks5090.056
Eagles50100.050
Fighters4085.047
Lions1098.010
Marines0077.000

Speaking of the Marines

Not only has Iguchi’s team not attempted a sacrifice this season, but when you look at how the 2018 season ended, we may be seeing something of a pattern. Having spent much of my life watching Japanese baseball, I thought nine games might be a record of some sort, but it’s not.

Although Iguchi’s team sacrificed once in its season finale, the Mariners did not record a sacrifice hit in any of the preceding 15 games. That gives them a 25-game stretch with one sacrifice.

He told me before the season that his coach’s were not going to go overboard on instructing the unique talents out of the young players but didn’t say anything about sacrifices. He didn’t have a streak anything like that — or like this year’s — during the rest of the 2018 season.

That 15-game streak is pretty remarkable, although Tsuji’s Lions had three nine-game streaks last season, and the Eagles had a 13-game streak.