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New San Diego Padres reliever Yuki Matsui met members of the English and Japanese language media online Wednesday morning Japan time, and spoke about Yu Darvish, his adjustments and hopes for the future among other things.

Matsui, 28, became the youngest player to record 200 saves in Japan in 2023, a year that started dismally in the World Baseball Classic, when he couldn’t control the MLB ball and pitched just one inning.

“I received a couple of offers. I was talking to a couple of teams. The Padres were the first that presented me with an offer. From the start, I thought the Padres were really serious about acquiring me. Going into my MLB career, I thought it would be a good fit for me.”

To close or not to close

“I’ve been the last guy out of the bullpen, but I haven’t thrown a single pitch in America, so I am not thinking I should be that last guy right from the start. I need to adjust, reliably get outs, and earn trust in the chances I get.”

That being said, people have mentioned his career save total and where he sits in a tie for sixth with Masahide Kobayashi among primarily NPB pitchers with the most career major league saves–Rich Gossage, with eight saves in Japan would be fourth all-time, but I digress:

	NPB	MLB	KBO	CPBL	Total
Hitoki Iwase	407	0	0	0	407
Kazuhiro Sasaki	252	129	0	0	381
Shingo Takatsu	286	27	8	26	347
Yoshihisa Hirano*	242	8	0	0	250
Kyuji Fujikawa	243	2	0	0	245
Masahide Kobayashi	228	8	0	0	236
Yuki Matsui*	236	0	0	0	236
Dennis Sarfate	234	0	0	0	234
Yasuaki Yamasaki*	227	0	0	0	227

*– Indicates active pitcher

“Of course, I know it won’t be easy (to earn the closer’s job). It will be down to my showing all I can do and then leaving it up to the competition. My job is to win, and I can’t predict where I’ll fit into the team plan.”

“But when people talk about save totals from Japan and MLB, I want to move forward in that respect. There are two great players just ahead of me (Yoshihisa Hirano and Kyuji Fujikawa) who I really respect, and if I can surpass them this year it would indeed be a great year.”

— note: Matsui didn’t name Hirano or Fujikawa, so I’m speculating. He could easily have meant Kobayashi and Fujikawa, who are both retired. Catching Hirano would, however, make it a heck of a year, since Hirano is still active in Japan and saved 29 games last year at the age of 39.

Yu’s got a friend

Although Shohei Ohtani was the on-field MVP for Japan at the World Baseball Classic, more than anyone, it was Yu Darvish’s team. After going deep into the 2022 postseason, Darvish sacrificed the bulk of his spring training preparations in order to join Samurai Japan in Miyazaki on the first day of camp, Feb. 17.

“For me personally, he’s a big presence, and a big reason why I joined this team. We were together for a month during the WBC, and he is was a role model, of course in baseball, but also in life. He made every one of this think, ‘This is the kind of man I want to be. This is the kind of ballplayer I want to be.’ To be able to play alongside him and be around him, helped me lean toward the Padres.”

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The deadline for submission is approaching and it’s time to open discussion about the candidates. In general, the whole “who’s in and who’s out” of the Hall of Fame sucks, both here and at America’s National Baseball Hall of Fame in New York, because it’s a binary thing.

It’s good that we have museums devoted to baseball, but using it to elevate flawed human beings to an exalted status as a celebration of triumphs that in a sense white-washes their failings. On top of that, Japan’s vote is largely a popularity contest where candidates are ignored if they did not get along well with the media.

Thus, we have a number of players, such as former Tigers shortstop Taira Fujita, who was one of the best ever who is not in and who will never get in, while qualified players such as sluggers Kazuhiro Wada and Norihiro Nakamura quickly dropped off the ballot because voters preferred to write the names of bunting heroes Masahiro Kawaii and Shinya Miyamoto on the ballot instead.

That out of the way, let’s start with my evaluations for this year’s Players Division Ballot:

First, let’s go over the pitchers, look at their careers, and how they stack up against current Hall of Famers.

This year’s ballot has three holdovers from 2023, Hiroki Kuroda, Masumi Kuwata, Shinji Sasaoka, and four newcomers: Career saves leader Hitoki Iwase and his Chunichi Dragons setup man Takuya Asao, Hawks and Giants lefty Toshiya Sugiuchi and Giants reliever Tetsuya Yamaguchi.

There are currently 33 pitchers in the Hall. Let’s break those down by the 30 who were primarily starters and the three who were primarily relievers. Let’s look at how each stacks up against the pitchers already in, their total career value, expressed in Bill James’ Win Shares, with one win share meaning he’s been credited with one third of a team win, and finally, how their career win shares compares with the group of current Hall of Fame starting pitchers and this years candidates.

Hall of fame candidates: Starting pitchers

	Career WS	HOF Rank
Hiroki Kuroda	215	17
Masumi Kuwata	181	26
Shinji Sasaoka	163	28
Toshiya Sugiuchi	152	29

None of these four would be terrible selections by historic standards, but Kuroda is an obvious pick. Kuwata, however, led his league in complete games a Japan-record eight times. Kuroda doesn’t fare well in terms of wins because with the exception of his time with the New York Yankees and his last two seasons with Hiroshima, he toiled his entire career for teams that did not score.

Now let’s do relievers but with the three existing Hall of Famers included since it’s a small group.

The first reliever inducted into the Hall, Tsunemi Tsuda got in largely because he died from cancer just prior to his 33^rd birthday, there were a number of tear-jerking programs about him on TV and specialist relievers were a new phenomenon in Japan and there were only a few pitchers to compare him with. As a result, he is perhaps the least-qualified player in the Hall.

Hall of Fame Relievers and current candidates

Reliever	Career WS	HOF Rank
Hitoki Iwase	152	1
Kazuhiro Sasaki	150	2
Shingo Takatsu	113	3
Tetsuya Yamaguchi	80	4
Tsunemi Tsuda	76	5
Takuya Asao	58	6

Players in bold have already been inducted. Others are on ballot

Obviously, Iwase, who has led his league in saves a record five times, is in a class by himself, and now that two lesser contemporaries, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Shingo Takatsu are in, it will be an easy trot for the lefty.

I’m saving five votes for position players and I could easily make it six or 10.

Position players

Below are this year’s candidates with their career win shares, the average win-share value of the best five-year stretch of their careers, the average win share value of the three best seasons of their career, and last year’s vote percentages.

2024 Hall Position Player Candidates

	Career WS	5-year peak	Best 3 years	2023 pct
Kazuo Matsui	378	30.6	33.1	new
Nobuhiko Matsunaka	291	31.0	36.3	21.1
Michihiro Ogasawara	314	30.5	31.7	10.7
Tuffy Rhodes	298	25.8	33.8	20.0
Tadahito Iguchi	321	25.1	29.5	16.0
Atsunori Inaba	279	27.3	31.0	17.7
Kenji Jojima	270	28.0	30.7	9.3
Hiroki Kokubo	296	25.5	28.6	9.0
Takuro Ishii	281	24.1	26.8	13.8
Kenjiro Nomura	227	24.1	28.5	22.5
Yoshinobu Takahashi	247	20.2	26.2	4.5
Takahiro Arai	246	20.2	22.5	new
Tomonori Maeda	243	17.9	25.5	10.1
Motonobu Tanishige	288	17.4	21.3	71.3
Takeshi Yamasaki	219	18.9	24.7	8.5
Norihiro Akahoshi	133	20.2	24.5	6.2
Masahiro Araki	178	15.2	18.4	new
Masahiro Kawai	137	15.7	19.3	61.1
Shinya Miyamoto	188	13.7	16.0	54.1
So Taguchi	153	15.0	17.4	3.9

2024 Hall Position Player Candidates by: Career win shares, average of 5-year peak, average of 3 best seasons, 2023 p

It’s pretty clear that three guys are way ahead of the rest, Nobuhiko Matsunaka, Kazuo Matsui and Michihiro Ogasawara. After that it gets a little fuzzier. Tadahito Iguchi surpasses Tuffy Rhodes in career value, but not in peak value, and Atsunori Inaba is a just a little back of them as are Kenji Jojima and Hiroki Kokubo.

So here’s my ballot:

Kazuo Matsui
Michihiro Ogasawara
Nobuhiko Matsunaka
Tuffy Rhodes
Tadahito Iguchi
Hiroki Kuroda
Hitoki Iwase

My 2024 Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, with the name of my day job omitted

Of those seven, I’m guessing that only Kuroda, Matsui and Iwase will be inducted in their 15 years of eligibility on the Players Division ballot. Tuffy has five more to go, and then it will be up to the Experts Division, where media members of over 20 years and living Hall of Famers vote.

I wish all the candidates the best of luck.

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