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Olympic suicide squeeze

Japan is not at war, but one wouldn’t know it to hear the words coming out of the International Olympic Committee that the Olympics will go forward regardless of the state of emergency in Tokyo and that sacrifices need to be made.

1940 all over again

Japan is pressing forward with the Olympics in a way that would have made the 1940 leaders of Japan’s Imperial Army and Imperial Navy shudder in recognition of their historic dilemma then when committing to an un-winnable war with the United States because backing out was politically awkward.

Holding past Olympics has proven catastrophic for some countries that became saddled with huge debt.

These Olympics are poised to set a new level on the kind of catastrophe the Olympics can bring. Japan’s government, in its desire to put a good face on this shit show, have said that canceling is beyond its power and that only the IOC can pull the plug, which no one actually believes but which is on par with most of the nonsense that’s been spewed about this travesty since before Tokyo “won” them in 2013.

‘Suicide mission’

Regardless of what’s in Tokyo’s contract with the IOC, the games can’t go forward without Japan’s cooperation, withdraw that cooperation, and the country can set aside tickets, volunteers, venue security, medals, health care and transportation for visiting athletes and officials, but can instead focus on Japan’s own health security.

Hiroshi Mikitani, the founder of the Rakuten Group, has called the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics “a suicide mission,” but this mission has little in common with those Japan is historically infamous for. In the closing stages of World War II, when defeat was inevitable and surrendering “awkward,” Japanese soldiers and sailors were ordered to fly bomb-laden aircraft or guide manned torpedoes into enemy ships, but this is different.

Japan, which has bungled its vaccination rollout, is now virtually condemning individuals to death and disease by diverting resources and energy to ensuring the Olympics going forward, but is not informing the people that they are being sacrificed, and is in fact denying it.

Instead, Japan’s government has done everything it could to downplay the toll of its drive to make sure the Olympics go off without a hitch. The government’s stance when the coronavirus struck could have been stated as: “this could be awkward, so let’s keep it from getting too far out of hand while not making too big a deal about it either in the hope it blows over.”

That didn’t work well in 2020. The delays in coordinating a real response–as opposed to the Tokyo Olympic PR response the government pursued–have impacted Japan from Day 1. People have literally died because testing and tracing were hindered by government reluctance to publish numbers that might make Japan look like a less suitable Olympic destination.

But through half-hearted action with an eye on how everything would play for Tokyo 2020, the world has come to realize exactly that: That Japan’s coronavirus response has become the joke of Asia.

The Olympics would be safer without fans in attendance, but for many in the government, including Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, and among organizers, that ship has now sailed, according to Kyodo News. The question is now how many can reasonably be crammed into venues.

Given the obvious bullshit coming from the government “We’ve never given the Olympics priority over the public,” Suga telling people fans will be in the stands, might as well come with the phrase: “Even if it kills them.”

No. The victims to be sacrificed in Japan’s Olympic suicide mission are not like the soldiers and sailors being ordered to their deaths in World War II, but more like their uncounted compatriots, civilians in Saipan and Okinawa whom the Imperial Army forced to commit suicide rather than risk capture.

If sacrifices are required, Japan has demonstrated it is not going to let death stand in the way of its Olympics.

Interleague 2021

This year has to be the most highly anticipated interleague session since the experiment began in 2005 as one of the owners’ concessions to settle the 2004 players’ strike.

From 2005 to 2019, the PL has a 1,098-966 record.

Through 2020, media people asked, “What makes PL teams better in interleague?” Since last winter, that has changed to, “What makes PL teams better, period.”

Related research and essays

What changed? After eight straight Japan Series losses by the Yomiuri Giants to the SoftBank Hawks over two autumns, it began to dawn on a lot of people that the CL hasn’t won a Japan Series since 2012, and has once in 10 years.

A brief review

When it started in 2005, CL teams seemed to see interleague as an insult, and beneath their dignity. The Chunichi Dragons are probably the worst case. The ownership moved a lot of interleague games out of Nagoya Dome and into smaller regional parks, perhaps to show how attendance dropped against PL teams.

Their manager, Hiromitsu Ochiai, didn’t have a good thing to say about them and his players didn’t seem overly concerned with the challenge heading into their first 36 games. I don’t know that those things are connected, but the public stance gave players the option of letting up on the gas.

One of the CL’s premier teams in 2005, the Dragons got their butts kicked. A team that went 64-45-1 against CL teams went 15-21 against the PL.

The results

YearsPL WinsPL LossesPL Win Pct.
2005-2009427418.505
2010-2014377312.547
2015-2019294236.555
Total1,098966.548

Under pressure from the CL, the interleague schedule has gone from 36 games, two three-game home-and-away series against each of the six opposing league’s teams, to 24 games, two two-game, home-and-away series, to 18 games, in which teams play their three-game series against each opponent, hosting three of those and playing the other three on the road.

Suggestions

This past week, however, I discovered some Youtube programs in which former players talked about the gap between the leagues, and in general, their solution to the CL weakness.

They agreed that PL pitchers are much more dominant in the zone and that CL hitters have struggled to adjust. Their suggestions:

  • Adopt a DH, if not for the whole season, then for all interleague games, to force CL teams to adapt to the DH like they will in the postseason.
  • Increase the number of interleague games, because the only way to get used to the quality of PL pitching is to see more of it.

This last comment is almost predictable because it follows the historic pattern of CL advocates laughing their heads off at every PL experiment, ridiculing it as stupid and harmful to the game, before adopting those that work.

The CL hated interleague, didn’t want it, but attendance is growing in those games every year to the point where there’s virtually no difference between those contests and league games, and I expect that before long, the Giants, the staunchest enemies of interleague play from Day 1, will push for more games because they believe it will make them better and improve their profit margin.