Tag Archives: Japan Series

Series notes Nov. 18

This will be the first time since 2007, that teams will be meeting in the Japan Series for the second straight year. That last series in 2007 ended in dramatic fashion as journeyman Daisuke Yamai and future Hall of Famer Hitoki Iwase combined on a 1-0 perfect game clincher to beat Yu Darvish.

The time before that, the Yakult Swallows beat the Seibu Lions to win the 1993 series after losing the year before. The Dragons did that in 2007 as well, coming back to win after losing the first time.

This will be the 13th time for a Japan Series rematch the following year, and the Yomiuri Giants may be hoping that recent history points in their favor. Prior to the Swallows and Dragons winning the rematch, the previous year’s runners-up were 0-10 against the previous year’s champs.

This will be the Giants’ 10th rematch in franchise history, and the Hawks’ fourth — and their fourth rematch against Yomiuri. The teams last faced off in the infamous 2000 “brain surgeon” series — the schedule had to be juggled after Daiei rented out their home park to a neurosurgeon’s convention.

The Giants’ lead their Japan Series series 9-2, with the Hawks’ only win prior to 2019 coming in 1959. The Hawks’ 2019 sweep was the sixth in series history, with both the Hawks’ championships over the Giants coming in four games. The Giants are the first team in the 71-year history of the competition to return to the Japan Series after being swept the previous year.

Jim’s Series odds

Forced to make a prediction for the Japan Series this past weekend, I went with the SoftBank Hawks over the Yomiuri Giants in five. Both teams dominated their leagues, although the Hawks were better at doing that than the Giants were.

Sorry, but this isn’t going to be one of those, “The Hawks match up well against the Giants” stories,

RSRAWinPyth
Hawks531389.635.651
Giants532421.598.615
Runs, runs allowed, winning percentage, Pythagorean winning percentage

Then there is the other matter of league quality.

We don’t know how much better the Pacific League is than the Central League, but over the history of interleague play, the PL teams have a .532 winning percentage. Over the previous five seasons, the PL winning percentage was .555, and the PL’s Pythagorean winning percentage is .559.

Let’s make a conservative estimate and say that if we threw the two leagues into a balanced 12-team schedule, that total winning percentage of the six PL teams would be .530, and the total winning percentage of the six CL teams would be .470. But because the Hawks were quite a bit better against a league that has been demonstrably better, then I’m going to estimate their chances of winning any game against the Giants at 59 percent.

Based on that, we get the following chances, were a Hawks sweep is slightly more likely than a Giants win in seven. Anything is possible, but I wouldn’t take even odds on it.

Series resultEstimated likelihood
Hawks 4-20.204
Hawks 4-10.199
Hawks 4-30.167
Hawks 4-00.121
Giants 4-30.116
Giants 4-20.098
Giants 4-10.067
Giants 4-00.028