Category Archives: Commentary

How to vote for MVP: 6 easy steps

Yoshihiro Maru of the Hiroshima Carp and Hotaka Yamakawa of the Seibu Lions were named NPB’s MVPs on Tuesday and both were deserving–although I cast my Pacific League vote to Yuki Yanagita of the SoftBank Hawks.

This year’s MVPs are fairly reasonable choices, which they often aren’t. So in case any of you one day get the grey envelope containing NPB’s league award ballots, here are six easy steps you need to follow to vote like an upstanding member of Japan’s baseball media:

  1. Be conscious of who wins the pennant and who on that team is the biggest statistical outlier or creates the biggest buzz all year.
  2. Look for player on the non-pennant winners with the most eye-popping stats. Did he set a Japan record in a triple-crown category? Did he win 20 games? Set a saves record?
  3. If step No. 2 produces a candidate, and none of the players on the pennant winner look THAT outstanding, then vote for the guy on the non-pennant winner to prove that you are not blindly favoring pennant winners in your voting when you in fact are.
  4. If No. 2 produces no obvious candidates, then pick the player on the pennant winner who has the most outstanding-looking numbers be it a pitcher or hitter, without regard to their fielding value or the offensive context in which their runs are produced.
  5. Ignore who you think is actually the best player. Even though the MVP and Best Nine votes are part of the same ballot, we still some pretty weird stuff. Yanagita was a unanimous selection as the PL’s best outfielder, one voted ahead of the Lions’ Shogo Akiyama, in the Best Nine voting, but receive 27 fewer votes in the MVP vote. Although this is not too weird, some people thought Yanagita was a better player, but not more valuable.
  6. Somebody, somewhere is required to cast a vote for Naoki Miyanishi. How this is executed and who is required to waste a vote on the Fighters’ wonderful left-handed middle reliever remains an unanswered question.



I’m not a big fan of WAR, but in case some of you are curious, the top three WAR values in each league this year were, according to Delta Graphs:

Central League

  1. Tetsuto Yamada, Swallows–8.4
  2. Yoshihiro Maru, Carp–7.1
  3. Hayato Sakamoto, Giants–6.3

Pacific League

  1. Yuki Yanagita, Hawks–8.9
  2. Hideto Asamura, Lions–6.6
  3. Shogo Akiyama, Lions–6.2

My measure of choice is Bill James’ Win Shares, which can be found in PDFs on my data page. Each win share is worth 1/3 of a win.

Central League

  1. Yoshihiro Maru, Carp–32
  2. Tetsuto Yamada, Swallows–32
  3. Seiya Suzuki, Carp–28

Pacific League

  1. Yuki Yanagita, Hawks–36
  2. Shogo Akiyama, Lions–34
  3. Hotaka Yamakawa, Lions–33

 


When catcher is the new second base

Tatsunori Hara is back for his 13th season as Yomiuri Giants manager after a three-year sabbatical. During his first 12 seasons, from 2002 to 2003, and then again from 2006 to 2015, Hara won seven Central League pennants. During that time, he also earned some attention for using lots of second basemen.

When Hara I suggested he had left in 2015 because he had exhausted the nation’s supply of second baseman. A few weeks ago, sitting in for John Gibson on the Japan Baseball Weekly Podcast, Jason Coskrey, quipped that seeing the Giants employ third baseman Casey McGehee at second base in 2017 had rekindled the skipper’s desire to return.

“Maybe that’s why he came back,” Coskrey said. “‘You didn’t tell me I could put ANYBODY at second base.'”

Or maybe Hara’s sensibilities were offended when his successor and protege, Yoshinobu Takahashi,  used 26  second basemen in his three years in charge.

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Well now Hara is back, and although he may bring back his “Who’s my second baseman” smartphone app, it seems likely he’ll need the latest update that includes catchers after Ginjiro Sumitani joined the Giants as a free agent on Saturday.

Sumitani, who last season been forced out of the No. 1 spot he’d held down for a decade by a catcher who can really hit, Tomoya Mori, said Saturday he wants a chance to compete for a job again. That’s great, but the Giants are flush with catchers.

Their incumbent regular, Seiji Kobayashi, caught in 119 games last season, while his chief backup Takumi Oshiro, caught in 66. Former captain Shinnosuke Abe, who hasn’t caught since he played in 25 games behind the plate in 2015, has said he wants to catch again — probably because the emergence of 22-year-old corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto as cleanup hitter means playing time at first is about to get scarce.

Until three years ago, Sumitani was the Pacific League’s premier defensive catcher, and probably will be the best defensive option open to Hara. Abe remains a smart and dangerous hitter and an unquestioned leader. Kobayashi has earned his regular spot and might still improve a lot defensively although he is no slouch now.

Elsewhere, the Giants met with free-agent center fielder of the Hiroshima Carp on Saturday, with Hara taking part in the talks, urging the 2017 Central League MVP to bring “new blood” to the team.