Tag Archives: NPB

Hall of Fame Candidates: Tatsunami

Kazuyoshi Tatsunami is entering his fifth year on the ballot for Japan’s Baseball Hall of Fame, and presents something of a dilemma.

He entered the ballot with a very healthy 35.2 percent. Since then he’s increased every year and last year finished with 65.8 percent. It was his third straight year with over 50 percent. Over the past five years, there have been three other players who were still on the ballot after receiving 50 percent of the vote the first time in the previous year. All three were elected. Only Tatsunami seems stuck in limbo, taking baby steps.

Tatsunami was the Central League’s rookie of the year and won a Golden Glove at shortstop for the Chunichi Dragons in 1988. His 2,480 career hits are eighth-most in NPB history. No player with that many hits has failed to make the Hall of Fame, but none of the players in that group are remotely similar to Tatsunami, who was a singles and doubles hitter and finished with 171 home runs.

He won three straight Golden Gloves at second base from 1995 to 1997, and another in 2003 at third base.
But playing in the same league with Yokohama’s Bobby Rose, Tatsunami only won one Best Nine Award at second base and one at third. He twice led the league in runs scored, but that’s it.

Tatsunami was a terrific, consistent productive player but never the best player on his team, never a candidate for an MVP award, rarely considered the best player at his position. His claim to fame is that he is among the first of the current generation of more durable players. Playing well for 22 seasons enabled him to amass a huge number of hits, which is his primary claim for entry into the Hall of Fame.

Bill James’ win shares credits him with 302.4, which is 23rd all time among position players who’ve been retired for five years or more. Of the 22 ahead of him, 19 are in the Hall of Fame. But again, most of those players are different animals. They were far more productive hitters, making one think that Tatsunami doesn’t really belong in the Hall of Fame. With the exception of Japan’s stolen base king Yutaka Fukumoto, they were all power hitters.



But there is another side to that story. Except for Fukumoto and Katsuya Nomura, the seven players with more hits were all corner infielders and outfielders. Sure Tatsunami ended up at third base, but nearly three quarters of his career was spent at second or short, making him an outlier. Tatsunami was a good second baseman and a good hitter for a long time

Outside the entrance to the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, the wall is adorned with a relief of about 20 to 30 ballplayers. I doubt if anyone intended it, but it is a microcosm of the Hall of Fame membership. Sixty percent of the guys are swinging a bat. There is one fielder, one base runner, and the rest are pitchers. Defensive value is something that doesn’t get a lot of play.

These are the most similar players who have been considered for the Hall of Fame. All of them were really good players. The current Hall of Famers are marked with an asterisk:

  • Hiroyuki Yamazaki
  • Morimichi Takagi*
  • Tsutomu Wakamatsu*
  • Taira Fujita
  • Isao Shibata
  • Takuro Ishii

Wakamatsu and Shibata were outfielders of similar quality. Shibata was a superb fielder and base stealer. Wakamatsu a better average hitter. Why one is in and the other out is a mystery to me.

The other guys were all middle infielders of similar quality. Takagi was probably not as good a player as Tatsunami but was a better fielder as was Ishii, who is currently on the ballot last year, and was named on 19.3 percent of the ballots. There’s not a lot separating him from Tatsunami, although Ishii got a slower start, since he turned pro as a pitcher and is one of two players in Japanese pro ball history to win a game as a pitcher and collect 2,000 career hits.

Why Takagi is in the hall of fame and Yamazaki and Fujita are not is, again a good question. It’s a borderline group not in that they are not worthy, but in the sense that the Hall of Fame voters have chosen to overlook most players like them.




The bunt, bushido and Japanese baseball’s issues with history

Japan’s home run explosion is making the obligatory sacrifice more and more of a stretch for NPB managers.

I love seeing a perfect bunt as much as the next fan, but hate the obligatory, let’s-take-a-bullet-for-the-sake-of-Japanese-winning-baseball-first-inning sacrifice as much as any of you, I’m sure.

Although the sacrifice bunt is celebrated as the epitome of Japanese baseball dogma, it’s popular now like it never was back in the day. Small ball has always been close to the heart of Japanese ball, but the bunt REALLY became popular in the late 1970s when former players of legendary Yomiuri Giants manager Tetsuharu Kawakami began taking over one NPB club after another.

The irony is that the bunt reached its most popular peak in the 1980s, when offense and home runs were at an all-time high and spearheaded by then Seibu Lions manager Tatsuro Hirooka. That’s when “the bunt IS Japanese baseball” was REALLY born. It’s not some age-old doctrine but a revisionist history — an explanation after the fact about how a policy that didn’t exist at the time of a perceived “golden age” was the secret to that era’s quality.

In that respect, Hirooka’s popularization of the bunt is reminiscent of Japan’s belief that bushido was a code warriors of a purer era lived by, when in fact it was a code meant as a wakeup call to men of samurai lineage who were warriors in name and social status only. It was a code that didn’t describe reality but was rather a set of moral ideals for warriors in a society without wars to aspire to.

Japan’s funny about the past. If one glorifies one’s famous predecessors, that goes over really well, whether it’s true or not. In fact, it’s something of a cottage industry that is hard to assail. If I tell you the Giants who won nine-straight Japan Series did so because of the sacrifice bunt, and you say it’s not true, your words can be perceived as criticism of a legend of the game.

The most famous example recent example of this was former BayStars skipper Hiroshi Gondo. The man, who asked his players to call him “Gondo-san” (Mr. Gondo) rather than Manager Gondo, was an iconoclast. He attacked a lot of Japanese pro baseball traditions as being moronic and a waste of time and was tossed out on his ear — despite a very successful run as skipper.

Yet, now, when more objective information is actually available, people will still argue that the first-inning sacrifice is key to winning games when it so obviously isn’t. But those days are numbered. It appears now that the current offensive explosion appears will finally drive the bunt’s arch proponents underground.

Digression aside, there has been a very peculiar relationship between win percentages and first-inning sacrifices.

Prior to the introduction of the deadened standard ball in 2011, see here and here, the relationship between wins and first-inning sacrifices favored visiting teams that bunted with no outs and a runner on first. From 2011 to 2016, home teams have done better bunting in the first inning of scoreless games with no outs and a runner on first.

Although the data this year is limited, in games through June 15, with home runs going through the roof in NPB like balls off Shohei Ohtani’s bat, the first-inning sacrifice by the No. 2 hitter appears to be approaching its final resting place.

In 71 games this season with a runner on first base in the top of the first, No. 2 hitters have had plate appearances ending in a bunt attempt (I have no record of fouled bunts before two strikes).

Yet, now, when more objective information is actually available, people will still argue that the first-inning sacrifice is key to winning games when it so obviously isn’t. But those days are numbered. It appears now that the current offensive explosion appears will finally drive the bunt’s arch proponents underground.

Digression aside, there has been a very peculiar relationship between win percentages and first-inning sacrifices.

Prior to the introduction of the deadened standard ball in 2011, see here and here, the relationship between wins and first-inning sacrifices favored visiting teams that bunted with no outs and a runner on first. From 2011 to 2016, home teams have done better bunting in the first inning of scoreless games with no outs and a runner on first.

Although the data this year is limited, in games through June 15, with home runs going through the roof in NPB like balls off Shohei Ohtani’s bat, the first-inning sacrifice by the No. 2 hitter appears to be approaching its final resting place.

In 71 games this season with a runner on first base in the top of the first, No. 2 hitters have had plate appearances ending in a bunt attempt (I have no record of fouled bunts before two strikes).

Visitors, 1st inning, Runner on 1B
2016: 187 chances, 54 attempts (29%) with a .537 win pct
2017: 57 chances, 14 attempts (25%) with a .357 win pct.

Home teams, 1st inning, Runner on 1B, scoreless game
2016: 194 chances, 77 attempts (40%) with a .622 win pct
2017: 58 chances, 11 attempts (19%) with a .364 win pct.