Tag Archives: Shohei Ohtani

Historic career value for all NPB players

Here is a sample of what’s coming to jballallen.com. I am currently in the process of transforming the site’s data content to include user-searchable data tables for your reference, with much of it available only here.

The table below allows you to search for players career value for all players in Nippon Professional Baseball, including its predecessor the Japan Baseball League, as calculated using Bill James’ Win Shares.

For the uninitiated, three win shares is equivalent to one team win. The system has its detractors and has its shortcomings as does the more popular wins above replacement, but I’ll leave that for another space.

Win Shares’ flaws are largely artifacts created by the small sample sizes of fluke seasons and are mitigated to some degree when one is looking at careers.

As a teaser, here are the career value leaders for play within NPB by position:

NamePOSB WSF WSP WSCAREER
Masaichi KanedaP16.90.0509.5526.5
Katsuya NomuaC468.9138.40.0607.3
Sadaharu Oh1B675.441.60.0717.0
Shigeru Chiba*2B219.784.10.0303.8
Shigeo Nagashima3B419.662.80.0482.4
Hayato SakamotoSS271.9110.30.0382.2
Isao HarimotoOF490.242.80.0533.0
Kazuhiro YamauchiOF385.861.70.0447.5
Koji YamamotoOF339.564.10.0403.6
Hiromitsu KadotaDH412.228.80.0440.8

*–The career value leader for players who spent most of their careers at second base is Kazuyoshi Tatsunami, with 315.2, followed by Hideto Asamura at 310.3, but neither played more than 1,300 games at second. I picked Chiba based on his overwhelming defensive superiority at second in his 1,415 games. Morimichi Takagi (294.6) was fourth overall despite playing over 2,000 games at second.

Of course, these valuations don’t reflect any part of the careers spent in America… For the full searchable table, read on.

Continue reading Historic career value for all NPB players

Sasaki move means NPB needs a change

Roki Sasaki’s posting at the age of 23 is a wonderful opportunity for a player who has tremendous talent and who I believe is not taking it for granted that a huge MLB payday will still be within his reach two years from now.

It is, however, a problem for Nippon Professional Baseball, unless we take what Lotte Marines at their word, that they are happily giving up one of the nation’s greatest pitching talents for a million dollars and change because it feels right to them.

Unfortunately, dealing with this problem is going to take the kind of clever strategic thinking NPB rarely displays, either by negotiating a solution with its union or with MLB, which has frequently rewritten the posting system rules to suit its needs.

“I tell them, every time you sit down in New York with these people (MLB), the big leagues benefit as a league, their clubs benefit, the Japanese players benefit, and you guys (NPB) justĀ bend overĀ and take it.”

— NPB team executive in 2016

I don’t have objective proof that Roki Sasaki signed a contract as an 18-year-old amateur that contractually obligated the Marines to post him at the drop of his hat, but that is the best explanation for Lotte donating a player who makes millions of dollars a year for them to MLB.

I assume such a contract exists in the same way I assume that a guy running out of a bank with bags of money under his arm while alarm bells ring indicates the likely occurrence of a bank robbery.

The interesting thing is that while people allude to the possibility that such a contract might exist, pundits here blamed Sasaki for having the temerity to enforce it rather than the wisdom of having that huge loophole coexist with a posting system that rewards MLB teams for poaching Japan’s youngest stars.

Continue reading Sasaki move means NPB needs a change