Hall of Fame | jballallen.com

Seems like a week’s gone by since the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame voting was announced but it’s barely been more than 24 hours. Late on Thursday when the day job wrapped up, I wrote up diatribe No. 1.

Today it’s time to get down to basics. Who got votes and ways in which their careers can be evaluated, starting today with the players’ division ballot, the one I have a vote for.

Players’ division results

The results are given as a percentage of valid ballots cast, with 75 percent needed for induction. The voters are baseball journalists with 15 to 29 years of experience. The real lifers vote on the experts’ division candidates.

Players can stay on the ballot for 15 years or until they are named on less than 3 percent of the ballots.

The biggest losers on the ballot were three guys with great careers who failed to get three percent: Hirokazu Ibata, Kenshin Kawakami and Norihiro Nakamura.

Players who get cut can then be added to the experts’ division 21 years after they’ve finished playing and six months after they are out of uniform. Tatsunori Hara, who barely missed induction as a player in 2015, with a 73.2 percent approval rating, was elected in the experts’ division three years later–when voters were allowed to consider his seven CL and three Japan Series pennants.

To prevent players from being unfairly disqualified, the ballot selection committee can hold players off the ballot rather than see good candidates fail to get any support and get eliminated from consideration too quickly. This is the reason Kazuhiro Kiyohara is currently not on the ballot.

There were 358 valid ballots cast in the players’ division, with 269 needed for election. Shingo Takatsu, led the voting for the second straight year, coming up 10 short.

Name	Pos	2021	2020
Shingo Takatsu	P	72.3	73.2
Masahiro Yamamoto	P	68.2
Alex Ramirez	LF	65.1	65.8
Masahiro Kawai	SS	58.1	61.6
Shinya Miyamoto	SS	50.3	58.2
Motonobu Tanishige	C	38.5
Masumi Kuwata	P	25.4	34.2
Kenjiro Nomura	SS	24.6	35.9
Hiroki Kokubo	3B	18.2	29.4
Tuffy Rhodes	CF	17.0	28.8
Nobuhiko Matsunaka	1B	17.0
Tomonori Maeda	LF	15.9	28.8
Michihiro Ogasawara	3B	15.6
Takuro Ishii	SS	12.8	24.6
Kenji Jojima	C	12.3	17.2
Atsunori Inaba	RF	7.8	20.3
Takeshi Yamasaki	1B	7.0	11.6
Yoshinobu Takahashi	RF	6.4
Norihiro Akahoshi	CF	6.1	9.0
Shinji Sasaoka	P	5.6	11.0
So Taguchi	OF	5.6	9.6
Kazuhiro Wada	LF	4.5
Yoshitomo Tani	RF	3.1
Hirokazu Ibata	SS	2.8
Fumiya Nishiguchi	P	2.2
Takashi Saito	P	2.0
Shinjiro Hiyama	RF	1.7	4.5
Kazuhisa Ishii	P	1.4	4.0
Norihiro Nakamura	3B	1.1	7.9

Experts’ division results

I’m going to keep this just to the results this time, since people were keen on seeing them and shouldn’t have to wait any longer. Randy Bass, the runner-up in the 2020 voting that elected slugging Hanshin Tigers catcher Koichi Tabuchi, was No. 1 this year. 134 votes were cast and 101 needed for election with Bass getting 95.

Name	Pos	2021	2020
Randy Bass	1B	70.9	65.9
Masayuki Kakefu	3B	54.5	45.9
Masayoshi Osawa	OF	36.6	36.3
Atsushi Nagaike	OF	30.6	27.4
Isao Shibata	OF	23.9	29.6
Masayuki Dobashi	P	23.1	20.0
Boomer Wells	1B	22.4
Yasunori Oshima	OF	21.6
Kenichi Yazawa	1B	19.4
Michiyo Arito	3B	17.9
Hideji Kato	1B	14.9	20.7
Masataka Nashida	C	13.4	12.6
Shigeru Takada	OF	11.9	12.6
Kiyoshi Nakahata	1B	9.7	11.1
Yoshinori Sato	P	8.2	10.4
Mitsuo Tatsukawa	C	6.7	8.1
Hiromu Matsuoka	P	4.5	8.9
Taira Fujita	SS	3.7

Talking turkey

As I did last week, I’m going to give some context to the candidates. I want to evaluate the pitchers and position players separately and have supplied five measures to do so.

Batters Eye: An “eye-test” point system for position players that gives players credit for tangible accomplishments that require no big math such as batting home run and RBI titles, playing for pennant winners, winning Best Nine and MVP awards, amassing large numbers of hits and home runs and so on. I don’t really think these are more important than other things but they’re the ones that get mentioned in every story.
Pitchers Eye: The same for pitchers, although they don’t work to scale with the batters formula. Some day they will.
Career value: Expressed in Win Shares.
5 Peak: The average win share value of the best five-year stretch in the player’s career.
3 Best: The average win share value of the three best seasons in the player’s career.

The day the results came out, I mentioned other questions we need to ask about a player, whether he was considered the best player in his league at any time, or the best player at his position for any length of time, or could a team win a pennant with this guy as its best player. I’m not going to try and answer those questions now, but you can for an extra-credit homework assignment.

Position players on the ballot

Name	Pos	2021	2020	Bat Eye	Career	5 Peak	3 Best
Alex Ramirez	LF	65.1	65.8	53	247.6	24.6	29.3
Masahiro Kawai	SS	58.1	61.6	17	147.6	15.7	19.3
Shinya Miyamoto	SS	50.3	58.2	26	200.6	13.7	16.0
Motonobu Tanishige	C	38.5		22	307.5	17.4	21.3
Kenjiro Nomura	SS	24.6	35.9	25	243.6	24.1	28.5
Hiroki Kokubo	3B	18.2	29.4	28	310.6	25.5	28.6
Tuffy Rhodes	CF	17.0	28.8	56	319.9	25.8	33.8
Tomonori Maeda	LF	15.9	28.8	28	262.3	17.9	25.5
Michihiro Ogasawara	3B	15.6		69	334.8	30.5	31.7
Takuro Ishii	SS	12.8	24.6	40	298.9	24.1	26.8
Kenji Jojima	C	12.3	17.2	54	293.5	28.0	30.7
Atsunori Inaba	RF	7.8	20.3	37	302.2	27.3	31.0
Takeshi Yamasaki	1B	7.0	11.6	22	241.1	18.9	24.7
Yoshinobu Takahashi	RF	6.4		18	262.4	20.2	26.2
Norihiro Akahoshi	CF	6.1	9.0	20	146.2	20.2	24.5
So Taguchi	OF	5.6	9.6	9	170.1	14.96	17.4
Kazuhiro Wada	LF	4.5		49	331.7	26.9	30.9
Yoshitomo Tani	RF	3.1		31	193.6	18.0	21.5
Hirokazu Ibata	SS	2.8		37	257.8	26.0	30.8
Shinjiro Hiyama	RF	1.7	4.5	3	137.8	13.1	17.3
Norihiro Nakamura	3B	1.1	7.9	39	304.8	26.0	29.1

Pitchers on the ballot

Name	2021	2020	P Eye	Career	5 Peak	3 Best
Shingo Takatsu	72.3	73.2	16	119.7	10.06	14
Masahiro Yamamoto	68.2		26	226.4	13.7	18.5
Masumi Kuwata	25.4	34.2	17	191.0	19.58	24.2
Shinji Sasaoka	5.6	11	15	171.7	14.4	18.9
Fumiya Nishiguchi	2.2		22	168.7	16	18.5
Takashi Saito	2.0		9	192.3	14.7	20.6
Kazuhisa Ishii	1.4	4	10	165.5	13.6	17.5

Earning points

Here are the formulas I used for the Batters Eye and Pitchers Eye points.

Batters Eye

9 points per MVP award
5 points per Best Nine award
1 point per Golden Glove for players whose main position was shortstop or catcher
1 point for every 2 Golden Gloves at any position
1 point for every 150 home runs
1 point for 400-plus career home runs
1 point for 500-plus career home runs
1 point for every 1,000 career hits
3 points for 2,000 career hits
1 point for each time leading the league in batting, home runs, RBIs or stolen bases.
1 point for every two 250-plus plate appearance seasons for a league champion.

Pitchers Eye

3 points for each MVP Award
2 points for each Sawamura Award or Best Nine Award
2 points for each time leading the league in wins or saves
1 point for each time leading the league in ERA or strikeouts
1 point for every two times leading the league in innings pitched
5 points for every 100 career wins
1 point for every 40 career saves
1 point for every two seasons with 40-plus games or 100-plus innings in a league championship season.

I have a message for some of my fellow voters in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame’s players’ division, and I’d like you not to take it the wrong way: Get your heads out of your asses.

I wish I knew what was up with some Hall of Fame voters because if it was simply a matter of looking at 30 former players and choosing the seven you think are most qualified, we wouldn’t get the dog’s breakfast we saw from the 2021 players ballot.

To be fair, it was a packed ballot, with a lot of solid candidates, but for the first time since 1987, none of the new Hall of Famers were former pro players. The Hall said it was the first time since 1998 that no former players were elected, but the Hall doesn’t count former players elected by the special committee, which inducted 209-game winner Hiroshi Nakao that year.

2021 Hall of Fame ballot posts

Strong Hall of Fame candidates announced
Deck the Hall time — my ballot and eligible position players
Another look at pitchers — sorting through eligible pitchers

With a slew of solid candidates on this year’s ballots it’s easy to see how big candidates can split the ballot. Shingo Takatsu led the players’ division vote with 72.3 percent, coming just 10 votes shy of induction. I didn’t vote for him this time, but he’s an OK choice.

But if quality of the player matters, then perhaps voters should ask themselves these questions, lifted from Bill James’ old abstracts:

Was this player ever considered the best at his position in his league for any length of time?
Would you expect a team to be a pennant winner if he was its best player?

Shingo Takatsu? He was one of the better relievers for an extended period, but if he was your best player you wouldn’t win a pennant.

No. 2 on this year’s players’ ballot was lefty Masahiro Yamamoto, who I did vote for. He was considered one of the CL’s better starters for a long, long time. He won a Sawamura Award. So obviously, his best was pretty darn good. The same could be said for No. 3, Alex Ramirez. He won two MVPs and four Best Nines.

After that we get into a shit show. I don’t mean to disrespect the substantial quality of all the guys on the ballot. Fifty-eight percent of the voters named Masahiro Kawai on their ballots. He was a terrific player, but if he’s the best you’ve got, you’re not going to win a pennant.

Two hundred and eight voters named him on their ballot. These are people who have been covering pro baseball for established outlets for over 15 years.

I love Kawai. He was a really good player who I thought was underrated during his career, but if you voted for him, I would appreciate it if you take your vote more seriously. If in your carefully considered opinion, you really think Kawai belongs in the hall, then your considered opinion needs a hell of a lot of explaining.

Norihiro Nakamura, a player who deserves serious consideration, got none. He received four votes, and will not be eligible to be reconsidered for another 14 or so years when he can get onto the experts’ division.

Hirokazu Ibata, a much better player than Kawai, got 1.8 percent of the vote. Kenshin Kawakami, perhaps a good candidate, got 1.4 and he’s gone, too.

It’s like there was a rebellion and voters decided that after voting in Kazuyoshi Tatsunami a year ago, and putting strong support behind Yamamoto this year, that no other former Dragons deserved support, since Kazuhiro Wada barely survived the first cut.

There are so many players on this ballot who are comparable to guys already in the Hall, but many of them may not get there because votes are being wasted by people who have no respect for their vote.

If that’s you, I’ll be happy to publish your reasoning. The more we discuss our choices and rationale, the better they should get.

jballallen.com

Category Archives: Hall of Fame

HOF 2021 Day 2