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Japan’s best pitches, 2024 part 2

This is part 2 of my lists of the most effective pitches thrown in Japan in the 2024 regular season. “Best” is subjective, but these pitches were the most effective in terms of their influence on game situations, by leading to better or worse counts or having worse results when put in play.

In Part 1, I explained the way the evaluations were created, and included the top 10 pitches overall, the top fastballs, and the top sliders.

Part 2 starts with Japan’s favorite secondary pitch, the splitter. For the most part, I have stuck with the SpoNavi website’s name for each type of pitch, except when Delta Graphs, which is more rigorous, is obviously talking about the same pitch as something else. The changeup of Hiroshima’s Allen Kuri is listed as a splitter by DG and so I’ll list that here.

Top 10 Splitters

PlayerTeamAvg. ValMiss Pct.Avg. Velo
Tomoyuki SuganoG-.03236.9138.5
Carter Stewart Jr.H-.02842.6135.4
HIroto TakahashiD-.02634.5143.0
Iori YamasakiG-.02337.9137.2
Allen KuriC-.02134.7126.8
Kona TakahashiL-.01929.8141.5
Shoma KanemuraF-.01829.7140.3
Tomohisa OzekiH-.01724.5131.5
Roki SasakiM-.01754.5142.1
Kazuya OjimaM-.01427.3135.1

Next up are the top curveballs of 2024, a list that definitely has a hawkish lean to it…

Top 10 Curves – minimum 100 pitches

PlayerTeamAvg. ValMiss Pct.
Tomoyuki SuganoG-.02722.1
Shoki MurakamiT-.0235.0
Shumpeita YamashitaBu-.01923.0
Livan MoineloH-.01827.0
Shuta IshikawaH-.01728.2
C.C. MercedesM-.01431.4
Carter Stewart Jr.H-.01421.4
Yuito MoriBS-.01331.4
Natsuki TakeuchiL-.01226.4
Chihiro SumidaL-.01128.4

Now to the cutters, where the No. 1 pitcher, rookie Teruki Yoshino, just scraped over the minimum, but it perhaps explains why he started Game 5 of the CL playoffs’ final stage…

Top 10 cut fastballs – minimum 150 pitches

PlayerTeamAvg. ValMiss Pct.Avg. Velo
Teruki YoshinoBS-.04322.2137.5
Kohei AzumaBS-.03819.8138.5
Shoma KanemuraF-.02921.7138.1
Kohei AriharaH-.02813.2142.5
Sachiya YamasakiF-.02512.0129.0
Jeremy BeasleyT-.02420.4140.6
Ryusei KawanoF-.02437.8137.2
Naofumi KizawaS-.02148.3139.6
Hayato YugeE-.02019.8130.4
Iori YamasakiG-.01927.9134.4
Yutaro WatanabeL-.01916.9137.8

Top 10 2-seam fastballs – minimum 100 pitches

PlayerTeamAvg. ValMiss Pct.Avg. Velo
Takuma KirishikiT-.04011.6147.2
Haruto TakahashiT-.03219.4139,4
Allen KuriC-.03221.0130.3
Kohei AriharaH-.0308.3145.5
Keisuke IzumiG-.02825.0138.0
Patrick MurphyF-.02815.7154.0
Luis PerdomoBu-.02814.3147.9
Albert AbreuL-.02720.3155.6
Kotaro OtakeT-.0246.1132.1
Daiki TajimaBu-.02415.9138.1
Andres MachadoBu-.02422.2154.6

Delta Graphs categorizes Allen Kuri’s shoot as a two-seamer, but the shoot was much less effective than the two-seamer (+.006 as opposed to -.032).

Japan’s best pitches, 2024 part 1

Here by two different reckonings are the best pitches thrown in Japan in the 2024 season.

The pitches are evaluated based primarily on how each one thrown changed the run expectation from before the pitch was thrown. There is a slight modification to eliminate some of the defensive bias — in that one quarter of the final pitches in a plate appearance are given the average value of the type of ball in play — simplified as balls that stay within the infield or balls that stay in play and get into the outfield.

The end results are also run adjusted, since the value of the runs surrendered vary with each team’s offensive context. Looking at a season as a whole, runs are more precious in Dragons games, nearly half of which are played at Nagoya Dome, than Swallows games, where nearly half are played at Jingu.

Continue reading Japan’s best pitches, 2024 part 1