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Talking bout a revolution

In Japan, the New Year’s holiday is the granddaddy of them all, with endless rituals, new years cards, greeting the year with a visit to the shrine, a thorough house cleaning, special new years food, and an endless supply of the most annoying television programming imaginable.

In addition to the annual movie marathons, and Kohaku song festival and boxing matches, the special flavor of this year’s new years season was Shohei Ohtani. Every major network has had at least one Ohtani special explaining his 2021 career season with the Angels.

One program which was actually pretty good caught my attention, largely because of its title: “The Shohei Ohtani and Daisuke Matsuzaka Revolutions.”

The program capitalized on the confluence of Ohtani having a career year, and Matsuzaka retiring. Most of the air time was spent on three players, Matsuzaka, Tsuyoshi Wada and Kyuji Fujikawa,

The trio, who like Ohtani all had Tommy John surgery after moving to the majors, analyzed Ohtani’s success, with Wada and Fujikawa also talking about the impact Matsuzaka had on them in high school and in their pro careers.

Because Fujikawa and Wada are two of the most interesting guys I’ve interviewed, and I absolutely love talking with them, it was pretty interesting. But as much as I enjoyed the program, I still can’t get my head around the ridiculous title.

Simply put, there hasn’t been anything like either an Ohtani or Matsuzaka revolution.

What Ohtani has done has been revolutionary, and Matsuzaka’s signing with the Boston Red Sox in 2007 was a watershed moment between Japan’s major leagues and America’s, but a real revolution? where ideas are spread and acted upon? Sorry, but Japan isn’t really the country for that.

The history of change in Japan has generally been a history of change from the top, of regime change by a coup.

Up until World War II, the most overarching changes have been brought about by dissatisfied elites. That was the case with the Meiji restoration. Although now touted by the right as a proto-democratic revolution, it was a coup carried out by reactionary forces dissatisfied with the chaos of Japan’s collapsing feudal order that wished to establish better ways to subject the population.

After World War II, Japan underwent what was called “a revolution without revolutionaries” as the occupation rammed reforms down the throats of a government it controlled, including writing its constitution.

But revolution as in changing the way people think about fundamental issues? That’s not really Japan’s thing.

Take Matsuzaka for instance.

Because of his high school exploits, pro baseball players who graduated from high school in March 1999, were known collectively as the “Matsuzaka generation.”

Japan made a hero out of a young man who was strong, athletic and diligent with an extraordinarily thick and durable ulnar collateral ligament that allowed that talent to survive workloads that would have destroyed the arms of 95 percent of the youngsters trying to emulate him.

Matsuzaka was more reactionary standard-bearer than revolutionary, an affirmation of Japan’s system of nurturing quality pro pitching arms by destroying most of them before they finish high school, while the Ohtani revolution if it happens, will come to Japan the same way Japan’s constitution courtesy of the U.S.

Japanese may be amazed at what Ohtani is doing in the States and are thrilled to death that he makes Japanese baseball look good in the eyes of the world, but while Japanese fans, like American fans, would really, really want to see more two-way players, Japanese baseball people are fighting that trend as hard as they can.

Although Japan has a reputation for engineering innovation, innovation is so often a matter of refining the heck out of something beyond what was thought possible, taking an accepted notion and making it work. But Ohtani made a mockery of the tired dogma that success can only come through excessive refinement in either pitching or hitting.

At first, those who publicly invested in that dogma said it was impossible. When Ohtani proved them wrong, they insisted he could only reach his true ceiling by doing one or the other.

I swear there were people in Japan who this year said, “But what if he only focused on hitting, how much better could he be?”

If he comes close to repeating what he did in 2021, the chorus will shift to “no one can do it but Ohtani.”

Japanese baseball loves innovation but prefers it to be quiet and come hand in hand with an explanation that it is an extension of the old teachings and not a direct contradiction of them.

The real Ohtani revolution, if it comes to Japan, will be because MLB teams figure out how to develop and sustain two-way players as regulars. Once that happens, a Japanese manager will say, “I don’t believe in two-way players, but it was our only solution to the problem we faced.

When it succeeds, more and more will try because it’s used in the U.S. until the old prohibition, like the dogged belief in having starters finish games after throwing excessive numbers of pitches, will just fade away.

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Hiroki, Jo and Masa

Since I cast my ballot for the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame on Monday, I’ve been going over my choice to write Hiroki Kuroda and Kenji Jojima on my ballot instead of Masahiro Yamamoto.

Essentially, I want to vote for players whose careers best track with players who’ve been selected previously for the honor. I’m not really trying to be a pioneer, although one could argue that trying to be objective in what is an extremely subjective process is radical.

If you look at who’s in and who isn’t, you’ll see that pitchers and position players have been held to different standards. I’ve excluded a handful of players whose Hall of Fame induction would have been unlikely without their managing.

I also excluded players whose careers ended before 1950 since the conditions were so radically different that they’re hard to evaluate with the same criteria. That gives us a pool of 72 players, 31 of whom were primarily pitchers.

So lets for the moment agree that in Japan, position players and pitchers are apples and apricots or whatever.

Kuroda and Yamamoto

Hiroki Kuroda, who joined the Hall of Fame ballot this election cycle, created the equivalent of 244 of Bill James win shares, with his 81 MLB win shares valued at 1.35 relative to the 134 he amassed in Japan.

In terms of raw career value, this ranks him 13th among NPB pitchers, all-time. Of course, pitchers who came along when Kuroda did, have had the advantage of managers who took their starters out before they threw a shit-ton of pitches, and thus have begun to have really long careers.

On the other hand, he ranks 62nd in history in terms of his best five-year span. Of retired pitchers from his era, Kuroda’s best five years are fifth behind Hall of Famer Masaki Saito, Kyuji Fujikawa, Masumi Kuwata, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Toshiya Sugiuchi.

In terms of the average of his three best seasons, he’s eighth behind those five guys, Hisashi Iwakuma and Koji Uehara among recent pitchers, but 114th in history, when pitchers were expected to burn out in a few years.

Yamamoto is an interesting comparison but not an easy one. Like his contemporary, Hall of Famer Kimiyasu Kudo, he was a lefty who survived the starting pitcher usage insanity of the 1980s and 1990s when pitch counts were allowed to shoot up in an era of unprecedented offense.

Yamamoto shouldn’t have had a long career but he did. His career value is 14th all-time, his best five-year stretch ranks 91st and his best three seasons 87th — the one area where he has an advantage over Kuroda.

I’m not 100 percent certain I had it right in picking Kuroda over Yamamoto. Yamamoto won 200 games because he played for better teams. If Kuroda had spent his career with an actual offense behind him instead of the Hiroshima Carp, he would have won 200, too.

Jo and Masa

I have Kenji Jojima ranked 38th all-time in position player career value. Some of the guys ahead of him are not in the Hall of Fame mostly because they were unpopular with the writers who put the players’ names on ballots.

His best five-year stretch is currently 19th best in history among position players, and his best three seasons rank 30th all-time.

There’s no doubt to me that he’s a Hall of Famer. I put him on the ballot because I felt he was a better candidate than Yamamoto, but he might not be. They both fit in with the best to ever play baseball in Japan.

The kids in the hall

In the past, I had Tatsunori Hara on this list of “mostly managing hall of famers” because he barely failed to gain entry for 15 years in the player’s division but was a shoo-in when his successful managing was considered in the expert’s division. But Hara had a career as good as many Hall of Famers, so I included him with the third basemen.

The players I excluded are Yukio Nishimoto, Toshiharu Ueda, Rikuo Nemoto, Kazuto Tsuruoka, Masaaki Mori, Yoshiyuki Iwamoto, Takeshi Koba, Akira Ogi, and Katsumi Shiraishi. The last five were all very good players but clearly were helped by having more on their resume than their playing careers.

Regardless of whether I’ve missed a couple of guys, it’s pretty clear that Japanese Hall of Fame voters are in synch with awards voters. We have had 158 MVP awards handed out, and 61 have gone to pitchers or about 39 percent.

It is reasonable to think that about 35 percent of the outcomes in every plate appearance are attributable to the quality of the pitcher and his own glove. In that case, handing out 39 percent of the MVPs to pitchers would make sense–if these MVP winners worked almost all of their teams’ innings.

They didn’t of course. It is also unrealistic to think that 45 percent of the greatest players in history were pitchers. But this is Japan, where pitchers are held in awe, and middle infielders are, for the most part, not expected to contribute offensively.

This, I believe accounts for there being so few middle infielder MVPs and Hall of Famers. Guys who can really hit are moved to less demanding positions because they run counter to the stereotype, and players who are fast and can really pick it, are taught as kids to focus on having small-ball at-bats: to sacrifice, hit behind the runner and hit the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield to make maximum use of their speed.

PositionHall of FamersMVPs
Pitchers3161
Catchers413
1st base724
2nd base35
3rd base515
Shortstop33
Outfield1937

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